A surging Donald Trump has cut Hillary Clinton’s lead in the crucial state of Pennsylvania to just 4 points, according to a new poll from Monmouth University.
The survey, which has a 4.9 percent margin of error, showed Clinton clinging to a 48 percent to 44 percent lead among likely voters in Pennsylvania. Clinton held a 10 point lead (50 percent to 40 percent) in the Keystone State in last month’s poll.
“Clinton is still in the lead, but the race has tightened in the past four weeks,” said Patrick Murray, Monmouth University Polling Institute director, in a statement. “It looks like this shift was in the works even before Friday’s FBI bombshell, which has made only a small contribution to this overall narrowing.”
Trump has been gaining on Clinton both nationally and in several key states over the past week, but Pennsylvania has remained one of her firewall states. She’s counting on big turnout in the major cities and surrounding suburbs to overwhelm Trump, whose chances hinge on outsized support and turnout among working-class white voters who make up the more rural parts of the state.
The state could also determine which party controls the Senate. In that race, the poll found Democratic challenger Katie McGinty leading Republican incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey by 3 percentage points, 47 percent to 44 percent. Toomey and McGinty were tied at 46 percent in last month’s poll.
Monmouth conducted the poll following breaking news of the FBI’s renewed investigation into Clinton’s emails on Friday, and the vast majority of voters said it would not change their vote. Just 4 percent of respondents said the news changed their minds about which candidate to support, while 89 percent of voters said the developments would have no impact. A greater percentage of voters — 6 percent — said they were unaware of the news surrounding the FBI’s investigation than those who indicated that the finding had changed their mind.
Trump’s climb in Monmouth’s Pennsylvania poll appears to be due in part to his rising support among white voters, particularly among white women, since October. Trump’s 7-percentage-point lead among white voters, 50 percent to 43 percent, grew from a 1-point advantage last month. The GOP nominee also now trails Clinton by 3 points, 45 percent to 48 percent, among white women voters, after being down by 20 points, 35 percent to 55 percent, last month.
Toomey’s job approval numbers in Monmouth’s polling have consistently inched down since the end of the summer. The new poll shows 40 percent of likely voters approve of Toomey’s job performance, down from 42 percentage points in October and 43 points in August.
The Monmouth University Poll surveyed 403 likely Pennsylvania voters from Oct.29-Nov. 1 by telephone.
