Indiana’s Senate race might be closer than advertised, after a new poll shows GOP Rep. Todd Young four points behind former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh.
Bayh leads Young, 44 to 40, according to a survey from the local WTHR/HPI released on Saturday. That’s closer than the seven-point lead Bayh enjoyed in the previous survey released by Monmouth. And it’s far narrower than the internal Democratic polling that showed Bayh leading by 22 percent.
Indiana is notoriously difficult to poll due to a state law that bans robocalling, thereby requiring pollsters to conduct far more expensive live calls. But Bayh’s late entry into the race was a coup for Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., who is expected to lead the Senate Democrats next year. Bayh, who retired from the Senate in 2010 with a $9 million campaign warchest, has very popular in the state. Democratic polling showed him with a 55 percent favorability rating, and the WTHR/HPI survey isn’t much different, giving him a 48 percent rating.
But Bayh spent his time out of office working as a lobbyist in Washington D.C., a record that Republicans hope will tarnish his image. Young’s campaign launched an ad saying that “Bayh left us” after leaving office. “Instead of going to work for us, Evan Bayh went to work for them,” the ad says, “making millions as a big-money influencer in D.C. and cashed in with the big banks.”
If there’s hope for Young to pull off the upset, it might be found in the fact that he also has a positive approval rating, but fewer voters know him. Thirty percent of voters like Young, compared to 22 percent who don’t. Twenty-four percent say they’ve never heard of him, which suggests he has room to grow — or fall — over the course of a competitive campaign.
Young’s campaign knows they also have to knock down Bayh’s 48 percent favorability rating, using reports that his voter registration was “inactive” and that he owns multiple houses in D.C. to argue that he’s part of a corrupt political class. “We’re trying to focus on our positive policy positions,” campaign manager Trevor Foughty told the Indianapolis Star. “But this campaign also has to be about making sure people know that Evan Bayh has changed.”
Bayh is projecting confidence. “I think you can follow me around here, people know me, they know my service,” he told Politico last month. “I was representing my state when my opponent was in high school. I mean, I know our state. I love our state. Five generations. I don’t think that’s going to be a compelling issue.”
