With nothing less than the success of the nearly 15 years-long war in Afghanistan in the balance, the White House is due to receive key recommendations from the top U.S. commander charged with helping to ensure the defeat of the Taliban and eliminating the threat from groups affiliated with al Qaeda and Islamic State in Afghanistan.
And while what changes the four-star general will advocate are not known, this much is clear: If President Obama doesn’t delay further withdrawal of U.S. troops, and step up U.S. airstrike against the Taliban, he will face another round of blistering condemnation from critics on Capitol Hill.
Army Gen. John “Mick” Nicholson, who took over the Afghanistan mission in March, will submit his recommendations through the chain of command, “very soon,” according to his spokesman Brig. Gen. Charles Cleveland in Kabul. “In fact, probably in next couple of days.”
Two big questions face the veteran military commander: whether to ask the president once again to extend the stay of some 9,800 U.S. troops who are part of two separate missions in Afghanistan, and whether to recommend ending the ban on targeting Taliban forces with offensive airstrikes, in order to back up the struggling Afghan forces, who are just now beginning to have some success against a resurgent Taliban.
In his Jan. 28 confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Nicholson acknowledged a “gap” between the end of U.S. air support for Afghan ground forces in 2014, and the point at which the Afghans will have a capable enough air force to handle the job themselves.
“Filling this gap is important in order to enable these brave Afghan soldiers to take the fight to the Taliban,” Nicholson testified, while promising to do a full assessment of the Afghanistan mission within the first 90 days of is command. That 90 days is up Thursday.
The Afghan Air Force has just four operational A-29 Super Tucano light attack aircraft conducting close-air support missions, with four more scheduled to be added to the mix this month. They lack the range, speed and accuracy of U.S. warplanes, and are not equipped to use precision-guided smart bombs.
Nicholson’s predecessor, Gen. John Campbell, testified in his last appearance before the committee that it will take at least three years to build a credible Afghan Air Force, and that in the meantime, the Taliban has been emboldened by the absence of U.S. air power.
Many Republicans in Congress believe the Taliban is an enemy of the United States, and that U.S. commanders should have the latitude to target them with airstrikes.
But since the official end of the NATO combat mission in December of 2014, the Taliban can be attacked by the United States only in self-defense.
That’s why the Pentagon justified the drone strike that killed Taliban leader Mullah Mohhamed Akhtar Mansour in neighboring Pakistan as a “defensive action” because of the imminent threat he posed to U.S. and coalition forces.
Still, Obama administration critics, such as Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. John McCain, are hopeful the killing might signal that the Obama administration is getting ready to take the gloves off.
“I hope this strike against the Taliban’s top leader will lead the administration to reconsider its policy of prohibiting U.S. forces from targeting the Taliban,” McCain said in a statement last month.
“Our troops are in Afghanistan today for the same reason they deployed there in 2001 — to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for global terrorists. The Taliban remains allied with these terrorists, including al-Qaida and the Haqqani network, and it is the one force most able and willing to turn Afghanistan into a terrorist safe haven once again.”
The other looming issue is Obama’s stated intention to maintain 9,800 troops in Afghanistan for most of this year, but then draw down to approximately 5,500 troops by January of 2017.
Nicholson has expressed a desire to keep his advice to the president private and confidential, but he also pledged during his confirmation hearing in January to provide Congress with his personal views even if they differ from the administration.
So should Obama decide to overrule his commander’s best military advice, it won’t stay private for long.
