Republicans say Democrats who are fighting to keep tight pandemic lockdowns are cratering the economy. The GOP strategy is to prevent President Trump from shouldering the blame if there is no turnaround before Election Day.
Concern has soared within the previously confident Republican establishment about Trump’s prospects against Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee. Fears are tracking unemployment, which has skyrocketed from 3.5% to 14.7% in just six weeks. It is likely to go higher this month. Democrats, trying to frame the debate in the run-up to voting, talk of a “Trump depression” and blame the free fall on the president’s mishandling of the pandemic.
Ironically, it is most commonly Democratic officials who oppose Trump’s efforts to reopen the economy and revive the jobs market. The Left is prioritizing preventing the spread of the coronavirus instead. Democrats are thus caught in a 180-degree contradiction, holding Trump responsible for a recession but refusing to open the economy.
Republicans say this opens Democrats to the wrath of voters who are increasingly worried about their finances.
“It’s a disconnect,” said Brad Todd, a veteran Republican strategist. “Democrats are arguing that the economy is bad and that we should keep it shut down. That’s not going to be lost on voters.”
A fresh poll of Wisconsin voters from Marquette University Law School suggests political trends could favor Republicans as the election draws near. In this closely divided Midwest battleground, critical to Trump’s reelection, only 49% of Republicans say business and schools should stay closed, down from 83% in March. Among independents, there is 69% support in Wisconsin, down from 79% last month.
[Read more: Trump seeks to reopen as early goal of keeping hospitals from overcrowding is achieved]
But other data shows voters more worried about health than economic recovery, which makes Democrats confident that making Trump responsible for the recession is a vote winner.
“I don’t think the American people think we’ve succeeded at containment,” said Democratic strategist Joe Trippi.
Democrats believe they can make the case that Trump bungled his response to the coronavirus, exacerbating damage to the economy, which he agreed needed to be shut down, and generating a death toll that stood at more than 82,000 Tuesday evening. They say there is no contradiction in pointing this out while warning that reopening the economy too soon would make both the recession and the pandemic worse.
“Trump owns that,” said Ed Espinoza, a Democratic operative in Austin, Texas.
The president still gets good marks on his handling of the economy. In the Wisconsin poll from Marquette University Law School, his job approval stood at 47%, above his national average, although he trailed Biden 46% to 43%. Some Republicans are confident that as voters shift their attention from coronavirus mitigation to jobs, the economy, and the question of who is the most qualified to lead a recovery, Trump’s past performance will carry him past Biden.
Privately, other Republican insiders doubt this assessment. Winning reelection during a historically bad economy is difficult for any president. Combined with Trump’s erratic messaging, voters may conclude he failed and vote for change, some GOP strategists fear.
“Biden’s best play may be admitting that nobody knows what’s to come, but you’re in better shape heading into the unknown with somebody who is stable,” a Republican consultant said. “It should be easy to make a case for change when you’ve got double-digit unemployment and 100,000 deaths.”
