Lost amidst the debate over Iraq and the end of the Democrats’ first 100 days in control of the Congress is this piece of disturbing news. Senator Max Baucus – Chairman of the Finance Committee and one of the leading proponents of expanded trade among Congressional Democrats – announced the other day that renewal of Trade Promotion Authority (‘Fast Track’) is not a priority for right now. Rather, he intends to focus on trade adjustment assistance. It’s clear that there’s not a lot of support among Congressional Democrats for free trade agreements. While many pay lip service to the goal, few regard it as a priority. In recent years of Republican control of Congress, it was always difficult to muster more than 15 or 20 Democratic votes for all but the most non-controversial trade deals. Once the Democrats gained the majority in both the House and Senate, it became clear that in order to pass Congress, TPA would have to see some changes. It would have to require trade deals to address labor standards and environmental goals. Now it appears that even thus revised, there’s not enough support among Democrats to pass a deal. The administration will now attempt to negotiate the best Doha Round deal that it can, notwithstanding the concerns of trading partners of whether it will even be voted on. Once the framework of a deal is reached – if that ever happens – the administration will use that agreement to sell a renewal of TPA to Congress. This will be a tricky feat. Under both Republican and Democratic Presidents, the White House has always argued that the President must have trade negotiating authority in order to strike deals with trading partners. Now the cart will be before the horse; the President will try to reach a trade deal in order to strengthen his hand in dealing with Congress. That’s a difficult path.
