Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research (WPA) has a very interesting analysis of Obama’s polling numbers. When it comes to judging how Obama’s approval ratings predict his reelction chances, WPA describes issue this way:
Or is in relatively good shape facing an electorate where most voters still like him personally?
There’s a lot of actual analysis and number crunching at the link, so be sure and read the whole thing. But in a nutshell there’s two big takeaways here:
In this case, the result is simple and clear: exactly one President in the past ten who faced Election Day with a job approval below 50% was re-elected—Harry S. Truman in 1948.
As for personal approval:
The President with the single highest personal approval ratings in our data set—Gerald Ford—failed to win on Election Day.
WPA wisely notes that a lot about Obama’s numbers can change between now and election day, so it’s far too early to suggest Obama’s a one-termer. But it doesn’t bode well.
