For all the attention given to almost $4-a-gallon gas, the biggest threat to containing U.S. inflation may be the shift away from homeownership, which is pushing up the cost of leases across the nation’s 38 million rented residences. Shelter represents about 40 percent of the consumer price index excluding food and energy and accounted for almost one quarter of the 1.3 percentage point rise in April. That share has grown as falling home prices shake Americans’ confidence in housing as an investment.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues say they will hold interest rates at record lows for an “extended period,” based on an assessment that slack in the economy from 9 percent unemployment will help subdue core inflation and any threat of accelerating prices likely will be “transitory.” Not everyone agrees with that judgment.
“They should have looked at rents,” said Maury Harris, chief U.S. economist in New York at UBS Securities LLC, whose team at UBS was the most accurate inflation forecaster over 2009 and 2010, according to Bloomberg calculations. “They’re putting too much weight on the ‘slack is all that matters’ theory. It matters but, for heaven’s sake, it’s not all that matters.”
“Job growth, particularly among young workers, is driving higher rental demand, while new supply remains muted,” Blair said in the statement. “We expect fundamentals will continue to accelerate during the year.”
U.S. apartment rents climbed 5 percent in the 12 months through April, according to research company Axiometrics Inc. Effective rents in the first quarter, or what tenants actually paid, rose in 75 of the 82 markets tracked by data provider Reis Inc., which said the average was up 2.5 percent from a year earlier to $991 a month.
The boon for landlords is a burden for residents like Alexander Shevlyagin, a 25-year-old Seattle computer-software manager, who said he was shocked to learn his rent is rising to $1,305 a month from $935 and his free parking space will cost $100.
“My building manager told me, ‘Hey, we’re almost at full occupancy,’ ” Shevlyagin said. “He said he signed the same place I have on a different floor for the new rates, so someone thinks that this is reasonable. Knowing what I’m paying right now, I don’t consider it reasonable.”
The Fed may be falling behind the curve, said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pa. Rising rents are “a risk to the core, which is the important number if you’re looking at Fed policy,” he said, estimating the rate could top 2 percent by the end of this year.
“It’s clearly a cost-of-living issue, especially as people who were in the homeownership market are winding up in the rental market,” he said.
