Retailers in the metro area expect slower holiday sales this year as consumers struggle with higher gas prices and a troubled housing market.
Maryland retailers are particularly pessimistic — predicting a 2 percent sales growth over the previous year, down 3 percent from forecasts for the 2006 holiday season, according to a Maryland Retailers Association report released Monday.
One-third of the 100-125 MRA members surveyed said sales would decrease this holiday season, significantly more than the 7 percent who predicted a drop in 2006. About 36 percent of merchants said sales this year would increase at most 2 percent.
“I’m almost aghast” at the findings, MRA President Tom Saquella said.
Maryland’s predicted sales growth even trails the national forecast of about 4 percent, an unusual circumstance, Saquella said.
“Four percent is still a pretty healthy growth expectation,” said National Retail Federation spokeswoman Kathy Grannis, whose group came up with the estimate. Over the past 10 years, the average holiday sales growth has been about 4.8 percent.
The Maryland suburbs of Washington, however, may be somewhat insulated from the slowdown. Montgomery, Prince George’s and Howard counties normally perform a little bit higher, Saquella said.
“The D.C. metro area … would probably do better” when compared with the national average, confirmed Michael Niemira, chief economist for the International Council of Shopping Centers, which predicts a 4.3 percent increase in sales.
The Virginia Retail Merchants Association doesn’t release its own figures, but the state tracks pretty closely with the NRF, a VRMA spokeswoman said.
