The Washington area’s housing market is not likely to improve much in 2012, a panel of real estate experts said Wednesday.
Home sales will begin to pick up once consumer confidence does, said John McClain, deputy director of George Mason University’s Center for Regional Policy Analysis. But because consumer confidence is low, the housing market is not showing significant signs of recovery.
In every recent recession, housing has been the indicator that the economy is recovering, he added.
| How the housing market is faring | ||
| Year-to-date home sales: | ||
| 2011 | 2010 | |
| New listings | 159,889 | 186,826 |
| Pending sales | 99,566 | 97,696 |
| Closed sales | 92,039 | 96,224 |
| Days on market | 93 | 79 |
| Median sales price | $260,000 | $265,560 |
| Average sales price | $329,283 | $332,846 |
| Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence | ||
This year has been tougher on sales than 2010 because of the small inventory of houses for sale combined with consumers who were too nervous to buy — and because last year the market was artificially inflated with the homebuyers tax credit — said Karen Trainor, chairwoman of the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors. Although home prices in Northern Virginia were up 3.6 percent this year over last year, the total sales and amount of money spent were both lower.
And 2012 will likely be similar, she said. “People don’t buy homes when they feel uncertain about their own circumstances.”
Likewise, sales fell 3.2 percent from 2010 in the District, said Bonnie Casper, president of the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors. She attributed the regional decline partly to the federal tax credit last year.
However, the markets in Northern Virginia and the District of Columbia are recovering more quickly than in Montgomery and Prince George’s counties.
Despite an “abundant” inventory and record-low mortgage rates, houses in Prince George’s were on the market an average 17 days longer in 2011 than in 2010, and prices were the lowest they have been in five years, said Alease Bowles, president of the Prince George’s County Association of Realtors.
“The market has not been the best, but we are seeing some signs of improvement,” Bowles said.
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In Montgomery County, the median sales price dropped from $360,000 in November 2010 to $350,000 in November 2011, said Casper, and the number of active listings dropped from 3,321 to 2,887 — more than 13 percent.
Still, the panel insisted that the future is not entirely grim.
High demand to move to the region is going to continue, Trainor said.
Low vacancy rates for rental units are driving rents up and have caused a spike in the number of multifamily building permits issued this year, McClain said.
“A lot of those people who have been thinking about buying or have been putting it off,” he said. “Eventually they’re going to change their minds.”
