OVERLAND PARK, Kan. — Centrist Republicans in this politically complex Kansas City suburb could hold the key to embattled Sen. Pat Roberts’ future and the prospects for GOP Senate control.
Roberts’ fractured relationship with conservatives has received the most attention in the aftermath of a bruising August primary with Tea Party challenger Milton Wolf in this deeply red state.
But Roberts appears to have largely repaired his relationship with base voters in the two months since, leaving disaffected centrist Republicans in Kansas, especially along the I-70 corridor to the east, as the variable that could tip this race to independent Greg Orman.
“I think Kansas is really more purple than red,” said Republican activist Marearl Denning, 69, who hails from Overland Park in Johnson County, an electoral battleground full of transplants and centrist Republicans. The county holds more registered voters than any other county. “When I first got involved in politics, I thought, this is a no-brainer, it’s a Republican state. Well, people ask questions.”
Roberts’ trouble stems in part from the unusual circumstances of this unexpectedly competitive race.
The nominated Democrat, Chad Taylor, removed his name from the ballot at the last minute at the urging of the national party to clear the way for Orman, a wealthy businessman who has been cagey about which party he would caucus with. Despite dissatisfaction with Roberts, reliable GOP voters who consider themselves centrists would have stuck with the incumbent over Taylor.
But Orman, who is based in Johnson County, has proven in recent polls to be a credible alternative and acceptable enough to centrist and other Republicans to put Roberts’ career in jeopardy.
An Orman win could kill GOP prospects for winning control of the Senate on Nov. 4, as he has not ruled out becoming the 50th member of the Democratic caucus and guaranteeing the preservation of their Senate majority. Orman is not assured of victory, especially as his business background comes under scrutiny.
But for now, it is clear that Roberts, whose previous three Senate campaigns were cakewalks, is bearing the brunt of the voters’ wrath.
Some Kansans are mad at Roberts because he did not maintain a permanent residence in the state. That had an effect, Republicans concede, because of the deep frustration with Washington that is coursing through the politics here. But others are unhappy with Roberts’ tack to the right in the GOP primary.
“I’m a registered Republican, I’m a moderate Republican. I consider myself fiscally responsible but socially tolerant, like Greg, and I think there’s a lot of us in the middle in the state of Kansas, but we’re overpowered in our primaries,” said Miranda Allen, 36, a small business owner from Kiowa, a small farming community on the Oklahoma border in south central Kansas.
“One of the biggest things that I have a problem with was, [Roberts] did not vote for the farm bill this year,” added Allen, who voted Libertarian for president in 2012 but for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in 2008. “He was playing party politics because he had a very conservative challenger.”
Kansas’ reputation as a reliably GOP state is well-earned. It last voted for a Democrat for president in 1964 and hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. But that record in federal races masks an underlying political tension that has opened the door for Democrats from time to time, though mostly at the state level. Notably, a Democrat has occupied the governor’s mansion during 28 out of the last 50 years.
Democratic success usually accompanies internal GOP strife, as was evident for Roberts in a primary campaign that was much tougher than Republicans had predicted.
Roberts also could be dealing with pressure at the top of the ticket. Like Roberts, Republican Gov. Sam Brownback has trailed his Democratic challenger in recent polls in what is widely acknowledged as the result of a rebellion of centrist Republicans unhappy with his conservative leadership of the statehouse.
Roberts at least has the benefit of running a nationalized race. He is asking voters to choose between re-electing him and securing a Republican majority, and Orman, who could help Democrats maintain their majority — and in doing so preserve President Obama’s influence on Capitol Hill. Orman has said he would caucus with Republicans if they win an outright Senate majority without his vote.
As with any statewide race in Kansas, the outcome will likely hinge on the voting in just six counties of the state’s 107 counties: Johnson, Wyandotte, Douglas, Shawnee and Leavenworth, which form a rough corridor along I-70 between Kansas City, Mo., and Topeka, the state capital; and Sedgwick County, which includes Wichita, an aviation industry hub and by far Kansas’ most populous city.
Those six counties are home to 55 percent of Kansas residents. Douglas and Wyandotte counties lean Democratic and could be fruitful turf for Orman. Overland Park, second in population to Wichita, is in Johnson County.
Although Roberts has historically won among Kansas more conservative voters, he had always had a good relationship with centrist Republicans who live in the state’s most populous counties. Winning some of them back would boost his effort to win a fourth Senate term. He doesn’t have to win Johnson County to hold on for re-election, just keep his margin of defeat manageable. Four weeks out, Republicans acknowledge the senator’s challenge but remain confident.
“I wish it wasn’t as close,” Doris Riley, an elderly retiree and GOP activist from Overland Park, said.
