Lindsey Graham is trying to put a southern freeze on the presidential field.
The senator from South Carolina, the latest Republican to lean into a White House bid, is asking top donors and political consultants in his state to hold off from joining other campaigns. Graham isn’t a strong contender for the 2016 nomination, but his home state will host the first southern-state race of the 2016 primary season.
Out of deference to their state’s senior senator, some operatives could remain neutral for a time, among them big names who would be expected to support frontrunners like Jeb Bush.
“A lot of these folks that would be money guys and organizers for Jeb early on are now on the sidelines because of Graham,” said a Republican consultant based in South Carolina.
Graham is connected to South Carolina’s major Republican fundraisers and consultants, most of whom are expected to back presidential candidates with Establishment ties. The 59-year-old senator won a third term in November, and he is leveraging these relationships to assert influence as a gatekeeper whose endorsement could matter in the primary. That, at least, is how many GOP insiders in South Carolina interpret Graham’s maneuvering.
Some of the most sought-after GOP operatives are now in conversation about how much running room they owe Graham, if any, before hopping aboard the campaign of their choice. This group could include surgeon Eddie Floyd, who co-chaired President George W. Bush’s re-election campaign in South Carolina in 2004; and Robert Royall, ambassador to Tanzania under the 43rd president. Not all supporters of Graham’s Senate campaigns feel compelled to honor Graham’s request to remain unaffiliated.
“I’m not necessarily in that camp,” Barry Wynn said Tuesday, during a telephone interview with the Washington Examiner.
Wynn is closely aligned with the Bush family through his prodigious fundraising for President Obama’s predecessor. The former state GOP chairman, based in Tea Party-rich upstate, spoke highly of Graham. But he intends to support Bush should the former Florida governor become an official candidate. Notably, Wynn was among many influential operatives who declined to endorse a presidential candidate in 2012, joining a group loosely referred to as the “keep your powder dry caucus” at the behest of then-Sen. Jim DeMint.
Graham’s announcement for president was the Number One topic of conversation last week among GOP insiders who gathered in Columbia, the state capital, for Gov. Nikki Haley’s second inauguration. The move has elicited reactions ranging from curiosity to concern. Many view the move as Graham’s attempt to get the serious candidates to adopt his approach on national security policies, as well as his push for reform on immigration and entitlements, while muscling his way into a position of preeminence among South Carolina Republicans.
There is curiosity because Graham’s easy re-election to the Senate in no way translates into presidential strength in South Carolina’s 2016 primary. In some regard, Graham survived last year because the Tea Party couldn’t organize behind a strong challenger. There also is concern because Palmetto State Republicans fear other candidates might stay away, or not compete as intensely, under the assumption that Graham has the upper hand as a favorite son.
Particularly after 2012, when the winner of the South Carolina primary failed to secure the party’s nomination for the first time in three decades — a streak dating back to Ronald Reagan in 1980 — Republicans are interested in maintaining influence over the selection process. Also a factor, albeit unsaid by most, is that a less preeminent primary contest would be bad for business. The quadrennial primary generates millions for consultants and the state economy.
“There is or will be little voter interest here in South Carolina for a Graham run for the presidency,” said a senior Republican in the state, who, like most, requested anonymity. “It will come to naught.”
