Greg Orman may have already won the Kansas Senate race, thanks to several savvy moves he made this summer.
The independent candidate emerged this month as a surprise contender for the seat held by Sen. Pat Roberts.
But the remaining two months of the campaign may not be as important as the choices Orman made when the race was off the national radar.
First, Orman, who has been both a Republican and a Democrat in the past, skipped the primary system entirely and ran as an independent. That allowed him to avoid the Democratic label in a deep-red state as well as a messy Republican primary.
Then, he put up a TV ad in midsummer in the middle of the GOP fight. The 30-second spot, called “Stuck,” showed two teams playing tug-of-war as Orman said Kansans just want the government to “stop telling the rest of us how to live our lives.”
“It was a pretty nasty campaign,” said Washburn University political science professor Bob Beatty. “And Orman’s ad, with this counter message — it was perfect timing.”
Orman is now in a strong enough position heading into the general election — one recent poll had him essentially tied with Roberts — that Democrats are going to court to try to get their nominee, Chad Taylor, off the ballot to help Orman defeat Roberts. (Orman hasn’t said which party he’ll caucus with should he win.)
Still, there are no guarantees Orman can pull off the general election win. Beatty notes that he has not been fully vetted as a candidate, which Republicans and Kansas news reporters will remedy shortly. (One taste of the juicy tidbits to come: The Wichita Eagle reported that he once sued legendary actress Debbie Reynolds over a $1 million loan.)
As an independent, Orman also doesn’t have the typical advantages that a partisan candidate can draw on. And while state Democrats hope he’ll win, it is not clear yet how much help they can give him considering the tough campaign they are already waging to unseat Republican Gov. Sam Brownback.
“They’re focused first and foremost on beating Sam Brownback,” said Burdett Loomis, a political science professor at the University of Kansas. “The Roberts thing is kind of a gift that plopped in their laps.”
It’s not a bad time to be an independent in American politics.
Since 1999, the Senate has had six senators who weren’t officially affiliated with either the Democratic or Republican parties, although each has had to choose whether to caucus with one of the two parties. There is no clear reason for the trend: Former Sen. Joe Lieberman switched after a Democratic primary loss, while current Sens. Angus King and Bernie Sanders have long eschewed party labels.
But regardless of the reason, it tracks well with the American public. A Gallup survey in January found that 42 percent of Americans identify as independents, the highest number recorded in 25 years. But research suggests that, like the independent politicians who represent them, these voters tend to quietly lean toward one party or the other.
As a voter, Orman has registered as both a Republican and a Democrat in the past. As a politician he ran for the Democratic Senate nomination in 2008 but dropped out before the primary. Since 2010 he has not been affiliated with either party.
Without a party label, Orman will have to run more on his personality.
Orman’s friends, acquaintances, and allies describe him as shy and private, a good businessman, and “an extremely bright young man.” Mike Harrison, his wife’s cycling coach, says Orman has run more than 25 marathons and has a single-digit golf handicap.
“He’s had to work hard to get there,” said Harrison drily. “He doesn’t have a lot of natural ability.”
It remains to be seen if Orman has the kind of natural ability it takes to get elected to the Senate, either, or if not, whether he can prevail through hard work instead.
