The battle for Senate control could rest with voters in just 10 states, according to where political groups have committed tens of millions of dollars in political advertising for the midterm campaign’s final week.
Republicans have to flip six Democratic-held seats on Nov. 4 to win the majority, and they’re poised for three easy pickups. But Republicans are hunting for those next three crucial victories in seven of the 10 states where this high-stakes, high-dollar battle is being waged: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina and New Hampshire. Except for Iowa’s open seat, each race features a Democratic incumbent running for re-election.
Democrats, with a very narrow path to hold their majority, are fighting to hold the line, working to pick off Republican seats in Georgia and Kentucky. Kansas, No. 10 on the list of states receiving a lion’s share of the money in the final week, is a wildcard. Republican Sen. Pat Roberts is locked in a competitive race with independent businessman Greg Orman, who has declined to tell voters which party he would caucus with in the Senate if he elected.
Those 10 states are due to be flooded with more than $30 million in television, radio and digital advertising over the next seven days, possibly much more than that.
“Every decision made in our strategy is centered around taking control of the U.S. Senate and then beginning to set our country on the right course again,” said Ron Bonjean, consultant to the independent expenditure arm of the NRSC, formerly the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
“The DSCC has outraised the NRSC by $30 million dollars and our candidates have the resources they need to win during the final stretch,” countered Justin Barasky, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “We’re confident that Democrats are well positioned to hold the majority.”
With seven days to go until voters head to the polls and the early and absentee votes are tallied, the Senate battleground remains competitive, although tilted toward the Republicans. Most of the available advertising airtime has been purchased, leaving limited space left to buy, particularly for outside groups like super PACs and political nonprofits, who are given lower priority than candidates’ campaigns.
But the advertising picture remains fluid. This week, some Senate candidates and groups were still booking advertising on broadcast and cable television, where it is available, as well as radio and online. Also, candidates’ campaigns and outside groups continue to change out their ads with new ones as polling data and events suggest that one message might be more effective than another in influencing voters.
One change that could prove significant: After being outspent for most of the 2014 cycle, the investment of GOP groups in the final weeks has been near parity with Democratic organizations. This influx of money could help put Republicans over the top on Election Day.
“Our surge in resources over the last six weeks has gone to digital and TV buys to match the Democrat groups in key Senate battlegrounds,” said Paul Lindsay, spokesman for American Crossroads, a GOP super PAC.
In a review of advertising spending charts provided by media sources, North Carolina led the way in spending by outside groups and the DSCC and NRSC. In the final week of the midterm contest, Tarheel State voters are getting bombarded with at least $6 million in television ads, more than in any other competitive Senate battleground — planned expenditures of more than $3 million for each party, according to the latest approximate figures obtained by the Washington Examiner.
For most of the election cycle, Democratic groups had outspent GOP groups in North Carolina by a margin of at least 3-1. That gap closed only recently.
Next come Colorado and Iowa, where the parties and groups are investing around $5 million, each, split fairly evenly between the two sides; and Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana and New Hampshire, where the spending will top $2 million, in each state, with that amount also generally divided evenly between the two parties.
The Louisiana Senate race is likely to proceed to a Dec. 6 runoff pitting Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu against GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy. Television advertising for the month-long runoff campaign has already been booked. The DSCC has reserved about $1.7 million, while two GOP super PACs, Freedom Partners and Ending Spending Action Fund, have booked $1.4 million and $2.4 million, respectively.
Meanwhile, Democrats are spending in Georgia and Kentucky (as are Republicans), although polling suggests they have a better opportunity to flip a GOP-held seat in the Peach State. In that contest, Republican businessman David Perdue is squaring off against Democrat Michelle Nunn, whose father is former Sen. Sam Nunn, D-Ga.
Georgia is a good example of a late-breaking state that resulted in groups moving in to buy television time only in the last few weeks. At one point, it looked as if Perdue might win this GOP-leaning state comfortably.
Now, it’s a dogfight, and the investment of the party committees and the outside groups reflects the polling data. Groups on the air include the DSCC, for about $1 million; the NRSC, also for about $1 million, and Ending Spending, for about $1.2 million. The Georgia race proceeds to an early January runoff if the winner on Nov. 4 fails to crack 50 percent.
But about those three easy Republican pickups: The advertising in these three states — Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia — reflects the non-competitiveness of those races. Accordingly, the data on television advertising reservations for the Oct. 28-Nov. 4 period reveals virtually no scheduled spending in Montana or West Virginia, and relatively little in South Dakota, by outside groups or the Democratic or Republican Senate campaign committees.
South Dakota, an open Democratic-held seat, was once thought to be a late-breaking race. However, it appears officially off the board and safe for a Republican takeover. The DSCC booked around $30,000 in TV time for the campaign’s final week, and including that figure it will have spent just $400,000 to $500,000 of the $1 million it budgeted for the race when it appeared competitive in early October.
