Republicans are bracing for another midterm election defeat in Tuesday’s Senate runoff contest in Georgia but are relieved to finally turn the page and look ahead to 2024.
Republican insiders in Georgia are pessimistic about Herschel Walker’s (R) prospects versus Sen. Raphael Warnock (D). Early vote participation and absentee balloting are discouraging, as is Walker’s performance on the stump. Plus, the Republican was hit with yet another allegation of violence toward a former romantic interest in the final hours of the campaign. But either way, the midterm elections will conclude once the race is called, freeing Republicans to focus on recovery and the future.
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“People are ready to flush all of the Trump [expletive] — rhetoric, endorsed candidates, party leadership — down the toilet. That happens on Tuesday night when Herschel loses,” a Georgia Republican operative said, referring to Donald Trump and Walker, whom the former president endorsed and practically anointed the GOP nominee in the Georgia Senate race.
Some Republicans in the Peach State say it’s simply too soon to be writing Walker’s political obituary. “There’s definitely a pathway, no question about it, with strong voter turnout,” said Jack Kingston, a former Republican congressman from Georgia. Kingston said early voting and runoff day modeling of the number of Republican votes still available to be cast — bolstered by a robust GOP voter turnout operation — make a Walker victory possible.
Republicans inside and outside of Georgia have been quick to highlight Gov. Brian Kemp’s (R) near landslide reelection victory over Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams. Kemp refused to embrace Trump’s claims that the 2020 election was stolen and instead ran a future-oriented campaign focused on voters’ priorities. For that, Trump recruited a candidate to challenge Kemp in the party’s gubernatorial primary and offered only late, tepid support for him in the general election.
A loss by Walker would add insult to injury for the Republican Party’s performance in 2022.
The GOP entered Election Day in November projected to score big gains in the House and Senate as a result of President Joe Biden’s low job approval ratings and issues such as skyrocketing inflation and rising crime. After all the dust had settled, Republicans picked up just nine seats in the House, barely winning a majority in that chamber. A Warnock victory in the runoff would drop Republicans from 50 Senate seats to 49.
Many Republicans are blaming Trump and candidates like Walker, whom the former president endorsed, for putting the party in this position.
“There needs to be soul searching about the kind of candidates we are nominating as a party,” said a Republican strategist in Washington, requesting anonymity to criticize the party. “This cycle showed voters care a lot about candidate quality, and we can’t simply rely on a parliamentary voting mentality to drag bad candidates across the finish line.”
Senate Democrats were on their heels for much of the 2022 election cycle as they sought to preserve a 50-seat majority that rests on Vice President Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote. They were defending incumbents in swing states Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Georgia under the weight of a brewing Biden rebuke and historical trends and could not afford to lose even one if they were to remain in charge of the north side of Capitol Hill.
In Georgia, Biden’s political standing was in worse shape than it was nationally, making Warnock an attractive target for the Republicans.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, took a hands-off approach in primaries, believing the decision should be left to the voters. But Trump had no such inhibitions and put his muscle behind preferred candidates in a number of crucial Senate nominating contests. In Georgia, Trump’s pick was Walker, an old friend and ally of many years who spoke effectively on his behalf at the 2020 Republican convention.
Walker romped in the GOP primary over Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black on the strength of Trump’s backing and his personal history in Georgia. For decades, Walker has been a beloved figure in the state. The former professional football player led the University of Georgia to a national championship in 1980 and has run businesses and other endeavors there despite living in Texas for most of the past two decades.
Griping about Walker’s shortcomings has been prevalent for months as previously undisclosed, damaging issues and events from his personal life have come to light as a result of the campaign. But in the beginning, many Republicans thought a charismatic, well-liked, black politician was the perfect antidote to the Democrats and Warnock, a black pastor by trade with considerable political skill. Indeed, some Republican officials say Walker is being underestimated ahead of Tuesday’s vote.
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“Herschel is working his tail off, campaigning all around the state,” NRSC spokesman Chris Hartline said. “He’s inspired millions and is running through the finish line to get this done.”
Hartline added that the NRSC, Republican National Committee, Georgia Republican Party, and the Walker campaign are coordinating on the campaign trail and “working hand-in-hand to make sure voters know how important this election is.”
