Utah GOP Sen. Mike Lee leads independent Evan McMullin with many undecided: Poll

Utah Democrats and independents have their work cut out for them to close the gap with Republican Sen. Mike Lee as he seeks reelection in November, though more than a quarter of voters are undecided.

About 43% of Utah voters said they would vote for Lee, who was first elected to the Senate in 2010. Independent Evan McMullin has 19% backing him in the Utah Senate race, with 11% supporting Democrat Kael Weston, according to a recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics survey. Another 3% said they’d choose someone else, and 24% said they weren’t sure.

The survey shows 63% of Republican voters would vote for Lee, compared to 16% who would vote for McMullin. The independent candidate has some familiarity with GOP voters in Utah, as the former Republican ran for president as an anti-Trump candidate in 2016.

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McMullin has more support from state Democrats, with 21% saying they would vote for him. However, left-leaning voters are more likely to support Weston, with 38% throwing their support behind him.

Among unaffiliated voters, McMullin holds the lead over Lee, as 29% said they would choose him over the incumbent’s 23%. Thirty-eight percent of unaffiliated voters remain undecided.

But Lee’s competitors are not backing down, noting there is more than enough time to close the gap. McMullin’s campaign pointed to Lee’s most recent approval ratings, which hover around 42%, and the fact he may face a primary election as proof that voters are beginning to seek an alternative candidate.

“We know that a majority of Utahns are not with Sen. Lee,” Kelsey Koenen Witt, the communications director for McMullin’s campaign, told the Washington Examiner. “Utah voters are tired of Lee’s political stunts and his devotion to party bosses and the special interest groups that fund his campaigns.”

Lee is likely to face two challengers in a GOP primary: Becky Edwards, a former state representative, and Ally Isom, a local business leader. However, recent polling shows the Republican senator has a strong lead over his GOP opponents.

But Witt said the fact that Lee, a 12-year Republican incumbent in the reliably red state, is polling at lower than 50% is not a good sign. As a result, she said the survey results show the best way to replace Lee is for voters of all political parties to band together and vote him out.

McMullin has garnered support from several prominent Democratic politicians in the state, with many endorsing the former Republican as they concede that it’s likely their party can’t overcome the GOP stronghold. In fact, many Democratic leaders have pleaded with their counterparts not to launch a campaign.

The independent candidate has garnered the support of some high-profile Democrats in the state, including former Reps. Ben McAdams and Karen Shepherd and Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson.

Notably, Sen. Mitt Romney, Utah’s junior senator, has declined to endorse either Lee or McMullin in the race, saying neither has approached him for one.

“I don’t get involved in primaries, and I don’t endorse,” Romney said. “I just stay out of them, particularly between two friends.”

McMullin outraised Lee in the last three months of 2021, raking in $1,032,983 in donations as compared to Lee’s roughly $520,000, according to the Associated Press. The most recent fundraising reports are expected in the coming days, which may give a better picture as to where the candidates stand.

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The Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll was conducted by Dan Jones & Associates between March 9 and March 21, 2022, with 804 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.45 percentage points.

The Washington Examiner reached out to the Lee campaign for comment.

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