Lingering court battles over newly redrawn congressional maps in North Carolina could play an outsize role in the 2024 election cycle and bolster the GOP’s slim majority in the House.
Justices on the North Carolina Supreme Court are scheduled to meet on Tuesday to hear arguments on whether the court’s previous Democratic majority was wrong to throw out a proposed congressional map drawn by Republican lawmakers in 2021. If the court, which now holds a conservative majority, rules that the map was thrown out in error, the state could undergo boundary changes that would benefit Republicans in the next election.
LINGERING REDISTRICTING LAWSUITS IN 15 STATES COULD RESHAPE 2024 POLITICAL BATTLEFIELD
If the court rules in favor of Republicans, it could set the stage for GOP operatives to draw a new map that guarantees the party picks up at least four additional seats in 2024.
The revived fight over congressional maps comes after a shift in the balance of power on the state’s highest court.
The state Supreme Court struck down a GOP-proposed congressional map in 2021 that would have given Republicans control of roughly 11 of the state’s 14 districts. The court later approved a different map to be used in the midterm elections, resulting in Democrats and Republicans winning an equal number of seats.
However, Republicans also won control of the state Supreme Court after the 2022 cycle, flipping the balance from a 4-3 liberal majority to a 5-2 conservative one. As a result, the new conservative majority voted to rehear arguments in the case.
That decision prompted an outcry from state Democrats who argued the court only granted a rehearing because of the court’s ideological shift.
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A similar situation is playing out in Ohio as the state’s Supreme Court prepares to reconsider congressional lines that were proposed in 2021. In the Buckeye State, at least three Democrats could face tougher reelection chances depending on how aggressive GOP lawmakers draw the lines.
If Republicans are successful in both states, the GOP could see major gains in the 2024 cycle that would help bolster their slim majority in the House and give Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) more breathing room to pursue his agenda more aggressively. Republicans hold a five-seat majority in the House, meaning any redrawn congressional maps could significantly change the political landscape heading into 2024.
