Joe Biden is in fourth place in Iowa, a new poll shows, offering a sobering assessment for the former vice president’s candidacy less than 100 days before the nation’s first nominating contest.
The Quinnipiac University survey released Wednesday gives Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren 20% support, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg 19%, and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders 17%, followed by Biden at 15%.
The poll echoes national surveys showing Warren leading the 2020 Democratic pack, with Biden slipping further down. It’s also a boost for Buttigieg, who has mired in the single digits in national polls but is now seeing investment of time and resources in Iowa pay off.
“It’s a race that is up for grabs,” Quinnipiac polling analyst Mary Snow said in a statement. “Half of likely Democratic caucus-goers who support a candidate say they may change their minds before February 3rd.”
The Quinnipiac survey is the second this month that placed Biden in fourth in Iowa. A New York Times/Siena College poll released on Nov. 1 found Biden with 17%.
In multiple conversations with reporters, Biden’s campaign team has repeatedly tempered expectations about his chances in early primary contests such as Iowa and New Hampshire. They see a path to victory in states such as South Carolina with a heavy black population. Despite outlining that strategy, a number of Biden’s donors and supporters have expressed concern that early losses could spell the end of his campaign.
With the addition of the latest Quinnipiac’s survey, Biden’s position in the Iowa caucus has fallen further in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. He now sits six points behind Warren, two points behind Buttigieg, and is in a statistical tie with Sanders for fourth place.
The Quinnipiac poll also found Biden trailing much of the front-runners in support from young voters. Only 6% of Iowa Democrats age 18-49 support him, with 28% supporting Sanders and 24% backing Warren.
In the poll, Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota sits at 5%, with Sen. Kamala Harris of California at 4%. Other candidates earned 3% or less.
Quinnipiac surveyed 698 Iowa likely Democratic caucusgoers from Oct. 30 through Nov 5. The margin of error was +/- 4.5 percentage points.
