Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick’s late entry into the Democratic presidential field is only the most recent example of the Democratic National Committee struggling to winnow the historically large field of candidates and a sign of deep disarray for the party as a whole.
“The lack of a message beyond anti- or counter-Trump is still an identity crisis for Dems,” said David McCuan, professor and political science chairman at Sonoma State University. “This lack of a consistent messenger and message has left the field wide open.”
While the DNC’s steadily increasing polling and individual donor thresholds for candidates to participate in Democratic primary debates has caused some candidates who did not make the cut to drop out, 10 candidates will appear on the November Democratic debate stage in Atlanta, Georgia, next week, down from 20 in the first June round. But others who are unlikely to make it back on the debate stage, such as Montana Gov. Steve Bullock and spiritual author Marianne Williamson, continue to stay in the race.
As some candidates drop out, others jump in. Patrick, 63, is the latest candidate to join the race, reportedly thinking that he can appeal to moderate voters while former Vice President Joe Biden falters in polls and in fundraising. Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has also taken steps toward launching a presidential run by filing to be on March 3 Super Tuesday Democratic primary ballots in Arkansas and Alabama.
“There might be a number of people who occasionally surge given an electorate within a certain stage, but then underperform or don’t carry that momentum forward, as we roll into, say, the March time frame,” McCuan said. “That gives someone like a Bloomberg or Deval Patrick or other moderate Dems an opportunity to take the mantle.”
The volatile nature of the field could be a manifestation of the Democrats’ struggle to get on the same page in the age of President Trump. Candidates and activists squabble over polices pulling the party leftward and over who is most electable in 2020.
Healthcare is a policy area where Democrats may have a leg up on messaging versus Republicans, as evidenced in part by the “blue wave” in 2018 midterm elections that flipped the House. But presidential candidates have sparred over healthcare policy more than they have united around it.
Primary debates thus far have largely been defined by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren pushing for a “Medicare for all” system that would virtually eliminate private insurance and require trillions of dollars in additional government spending each year, while other candidates propose what they say is a less drastic, more realistic public option program.
McCuan said that candidates have also been unable to coalesce around any one personality, though many of the candidates attempt to evoke President Barack Obama — Biden, for example, regularly mentions on the campaign trail that it was the “honor” of his life to be his vice president.
“No one’s been able to take that mantle because it’s not enough to be Obama 2.0 for the Democratic Party this time. It’s a different dynamic and it’s a different set of facts,” McCuan said. The “perennial identity crisis of message and messenger” could also be why Hillary Clinton is mentioned as a potential candidate sometimes, he added.
With far-left liberals rising in the party ranks and moderates hoping to redirect policy and candidates toward appealing to swing-state voters, the DNC debate qualification structure attempted to create a fair playing field while still allowing new candidates and ideas into the party. But the dynamics have “created a process of debate winnowing that has let the field linger and not let the field flourish,” McCuan said.
