Public polling shows voters growing concerned about the violent demonstrations in many cities and beginning to take a less favorable view of the protests themselves, but protests and the violence have yet to alter the trajectory of the presidential race.
The latest poll to show a drop in support for Black Lives Matter is Politico/Morning Consult, showing a 9-point decline in favorability from 61% in June to 52% this month. This follows a Marquette University Law School poll that saw a decrease in favorability for the social cause from 61% to 48% over the same time period, with the same percentage of respondents viewing it unfavorably. Civiqs found a more modest fall of 4 points since June.
“What is clear is that opposition to BLM has more than doubled in its increase compared to the decrease in support,” reported veteran Republican pollster Chris Wilson. “This increase in opposition is directly linked to the riots.”
President Trump hasn’t reaped an electoral windfall from this turn in public opinion yet, though some Democrats blame him for turning Republicans against Black Lives Matter. The Politico/Morning Consult poll shows Democratic challenger Joe Biden beating Trump on public safety by 47% to 39%. The former vice president is also favored on race relations by a 19-point margin. Biden remains ahead by 7.2 points in the RealClearPolitics national polling average.
But Trump sees the opportunity, hammering the Democrats on “law and order” and warning that Biden’s election will cause more of the country to resemble Portland. Biden also clearly senses the danger, following Trump to Kenosha and stepping up condemnations of looting and rioting after a Democratic convention that largely focused on peaceful protests. The former vice president is trying to make the case that Trump and various right-wing extremists are fanning the flames.
“I don’t think we’re guaranteed to put points on the board here,” said a Republican strategist. “But I do think the president’s campaign is right to try to make this a major issue.”
A Heritage Action Battleground survey asked voters in the swing states of Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin which sentiment they agreed with more: “These protests are a result of years of injustice and inequality suffered by Americans who are minorities as a result of systemic racism in our police departments and government in general”; or “These protests have stopped being about racial injustice and have become violent riots by people who hate America and want to tear down our government and radically change American culture.”
In the four must-win states, 49% chose the second, “violent riots” option, and 42% opted for the first, “racial justice” response. The winning position was closer to the argument Trump is making on the campaign trail.
“The violence we’ve seen since early summer is absolutely tipping the electoral scales toward Republican candidates,” Wilson concluded. “Democrats and their friends in the MSM fail to speak out on these riots — or worse, call them ‘peaceful protests’; see: Cillizza, Chris — at their own peril.”
Following the death of George Floyd in police custody in May, the country was united across party lines in wanting to see changes to prevent other black men from dying in encounters with law enforcement. Trump’s poll numbers initially fell as he was not seen as rising to the moment. Now, multiple otherwise sympathetic observers have worried the protests have gone too far.
“The rioting has to stop,” CNN commentator Don Lemon said in a broadcast last month. “It’s showing up in the polling. It’s showing up in focus groups. It is the only thing right now that is sticking.”
“There’s no doubt it’s playing into Trump’s hands,” warned Democratic Madison Mayor Paul Soglin two days later. “There’s a significant number of undecided voters who are not ideological, and they can move very easily from Republican to the Democratic column and back again.”
The Biden campaign has tried to stem the tide by getting out in front of the issue, with the Democratic nominee delivering a speech on the violence in Pittsburgh on Monday. “I want to make it absolutely clear, so I’m going to be very clear about all of this, rioting is not protesting,” he said. “Looting is not protesting. Setting fires is not protesting. None of this is protesting. It’s lawlessness, plain and simple. And those who do it should be prosecuted.”
Trump has argued that the violence is most pronounced in cities governed by Democrats, with liberal mayors and governors resisting his offers of federal intervention to quell the rioting. Buttressed by multiple other Republican convention speakers, Trump has portrayed Biden as a captive of “the left-wing mob.”
