Presidential responses to natural disasters can sink campaigns, and Donald Trump’s penchant for self-congratulation and a storm of controversy over last year’s devastation in Puerto Rico left some Republican candidates nervous as Hurricane Michael approached.
But Trump’s performance when visiting Florida in the aftermath and his growing ease in the role of what some have dubbed “consoler in chief” has led some in his party to believe that their midterm election chances in the Sunshine State may have been boosted.
Michael’s path was immense, impacting residents from Florida to Virginia, and the Sunshine State incurred the most damage. Florida officials announced Tuesday afternoon that the storm claimed 16 lives in the state, a figure more than double the amount killed in any other state. A dozen of the reported deaths came from Bay County, which took a direct hit from the storm.
The Trump administration responded aggressively, ordering workers, meals, and supplies be distributed in the wake of Michael.
Trump’s closeness to Gov. Rick Scott, who is in a knife-edge battle with incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, has also helped. “When the governor reaches out to the federal government, to president Trump, obviously he has a straight line of communication and the federal government helps us out, it makes things move quicker,” Florida state representative and state Republican Party Chairman Blaise Ingoglia told the Washington Examiner on Tuesday, adding that “the president has been very helpful.”
The Federal Emergency Management Agency deployed over 16,000 employees, including over 8,000 military personnel, to support in the Hurricane Michael relief efforts. Some 35,000 utility employees are working to restore power and hundreds of small teams are working search and rescue missions. In Florida, FEMA is distributing roughly 715,000 meals and 1.5 million liters of water per day, according to the agency.
While the Trump administration has been proactive, many Republican strategists in the state point to the fact that Florida Gov. Rick Scott’s administration has been well-prepared for natural disasters.
“Rick Scott has been governor for eight years and we have had three pretty significant storms in his terms. This one is the worst, but two other significant ones,” Susie Wiles, former 2016 Florida Trump campaign chairwoman and current chairwoman of Rep. Ron DeSantis’ gubernatorial campaign, told the Washington Examiner.
“In this case, I think Floridians have done quite well. The state has a really, really good emergency management system. Every single piece and part you would put in place, from shelters to notifications to evacuations to rebuilding infrastructure, it really is as good as it can be,” Wiles said. “When President Trump comes, he is coming into a situation that is very well in hand, unlike other places he would go and it is not so good. I would say there is a little bit of [a] dynamic here where Rick Scott has done so well in preparing for the storm.”
Many living in the most impacted regions of the state have been waiting for nearly a week to get access to potable water, power, and other basic day-to-day necessities.
Most people in Panama City, Fla., remained without power, restrooms or water four days after Michael swept through their town. Reports across Michael’s path describe various stories of power lines still down, homes destroyed, and families, including single elderly individuals, waiting for much-needed supplies.
The waiting times, along with Tuesday’s reported death tolls, stoked some concerns that either the administration or state-level officials weren’t doing enough in the wake of the storm. Republican strategists push back against those arguments, acknowledging that the devastation is immense, but that emergency response crews face serious obstacles in providing timely relief.
“There is a ton of frustration. Seventy-two hours is kind of people’s limit, generally. If you are in a place where you still don’t have running water … you are beginning to get frustrated,” Wiles said. “If you stayed, you don’t want to be in a shelter, and your house is badly damaged, you are going to be frustrated right now. I don’t think people blame the governor, because he has over-communicated. He has provided people a way to get out.”
“I haven’t seen blame. I think mostly the people who are still waiting for power to be restored are seeing an administration that is working extremely hard, working day and night, bending over backwards to get everything back to where it was,” Igoglia said. “I think the expectation for those on the ground is it will take time for people to get back to normal. People are being caring from the administration.”
One thing strategists highlighted to the Washington Examiner in September during Hurricane Florence is that, during an election year, people will try to politicize any event. On the one hand, if things go favorably and the administration’s response is seen as effective, the president and Republicans can use that as a campaigning point. If things do not pan out, Democrats will likely use it to hit the president, who is already facing backlash for a series of tweets regarding the death totals from hurricanes in Puerto Rico.
Scott is currently trailing Nelson, but only just. The latest polls show him leading Scott by roughly 2.5 percentage points heading into the November elections.
DeSantis is in an even more difficult spot. The Florida representative has been down against his Democratic challenger, Andrew Gillum, for the entirety of the race, although he has steadily picked up support. Gillum’s stances on criminal justice reform have caused some police and law enforcement unions to sway in favor of DeSantis.
One thing that could prove challenging for DeSantis is that he has been attacked by Trump. DeSantis distanced himself from the president’s claim that Democrats artificially inflated the death tolls from Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico, causing the president to call him out on Twitter.
