Pete Buttigieg is the top choice of likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers in a new Monmouth University poll, the first time he topped any state or national poll surveying support for candidates in the crowded presidential field.
The South Bend, Indiana, mayor led the pack with 22% support in the first-in-the-nation caucus state, according to the poll, released on Tuesday. Buttigieg is followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 19%, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 18%, and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 13%. Minnesota Rep. Amy Klobuchar came in fifth place at 5% support, and no other candidate topped 3%.
The poll demonstrates a large surge of support for Buttigieg in recent months. In August, the last time Monmouth surveyed Iowa Democratic voters, Buttigieg was tied with Sanders for fourth place at 8% support, and Biden led the field with 26%. RealClearPolitics’ average of primary polls puts him at 19.7% support in Iowa, in second place behind Warren at 20%. At this time last month, Buttigieg was in fourth place with 11% support in the average.
“Buttigieg is emerging as a top pick for a wide variety of Iowa Democrats. While he has made nominally bigger gains among older caucusgoers, you really can’t pigeonhole his support to one particular group. He is doing well with voters regardless of education or ideology,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
After launching what seemed like a long-shot presidential bid in January with little name recognition, Buttigieg, 37, has become a formidable fundraiser and grassroots organizer. He led the field in fundraising in the second quarter, had $23 million in cash on hand at the end of September, and has one of the largest teams on the ground in Iowa.
Preferences of Iowa caucusgoers may continue to change, the poll indicates. Only 28% of respondents said that they are firmly settled on a candidate.
“Iowa caucusgoers are used to changing their minds up to the last minute. In fact, some probably even look forward to waiting until caucus night to settle on a candidate. This all translates to a race that is extremely fluid and will probably stay that way up to February 3rd,” Murray said.
While he is polling well in Iowa, Buttigieg is further behind in national primary polls. RealClearPolitics’ average finds Buttigieg in fourth place at 7.5% nationally, while Biden leads with 26.8%.
The poll also found less than 1% support for former New York mayor and billionaire businessman Michael Bloomberg, who had not announced his candidacy but has filed to be on Democratic primary ballots in Alabama and Arkansas. (Bloomberg was not listed alongside other candidates during the first day of the survey.)
The Monmouth poll was conducted Nov. 7-11 with a random sample of 966 registered Democratic voters in Iowa, 434 of which who were contacted on a landline and 532 on a cellphone. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6%.
