The Trump campaign is quietly accelerating robust field and data programs across Iowa to generate a show of force in the Feb. 3 caucuses by crushing his opponents while working the kinks out of its state political operation.
President Trump faces marginal opposition, and the outcome is not in doubt. But Trump is heading to Des Moines for a Jan. 30 rally, and Vice President Mike Pence is being deployed to conservative western Iowa to energize Republican turnout.
“The caucuses will be a good workout for our ground game as we prepare to win Iowa in November,” Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh told the Washington Examiner on Thursday.
With Democrats hogging the Iowa spotlight, the campaign’s Iowa activities also represent an effort to seize some attention away from Trump’s rivals.
Turnout in the Democratic caucuses should be sky high, motivated by a furious, up-for-grabs competition for the nomination being waged by a handful of top contenders. The Republican caucuses are expected to be a sleepy affair, typical when an incumbent popular with his party is running and there is no meaningful primary challenge. Trump, runner-up to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas in the contentious 2016 Iowa caucuses, will easily defeat his challengers, former Illinois Rep. Joe Walsh and ex-Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld.
The Iowa Republican Party is holding caucuses despite overwhelming support for Trump among GOP voters. Other state parties have decided to cancel their nominating contests.
In coordination with the Republican National Committee, the Iowa GOP, and county affiliates across the state, Trump’s team is mobilizing prominent supporters, paid campaign staff, and a network of volunteers to maximize voter turnout for Trump and to test operations. In Iowa, impressed Republican officials described the effort as a dry run in the state for November.
“We are all marching to the same drum,” said Jeff Kaufmann, Iowa’s Republican chairman.
In 2016, Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton in Iowa by a comfortable 9 percentage points. Two years later, the state reverted to its swing state roots. Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds won narrowly, while Democrats flipped two GOP-held House seats. Republicans are bullish on Trump’s prospects for a repeat victory this year, although they are predicting a close finish.
The Trump campaign is taking precautions by scheduling one of its first rallies of 2020 in Iowa. Among the other crucial states Trump and his top supporters have traveled to for rallies and events this month include Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin.
The president’s signature concert-style rally is more than encouragement for his loyal base or a messaging megaphone. The event is an organizing tool around which the campaign revolves, like the hub and spokes of a wheel. Trump uses the thousands of requests for rally tickets to supplement its voter file and recruit grassroots volunteers.
“I don’t think anyone is expecting Republican turnout in the caucuses to be anywhere near close to the Democrats,” said Jimmy Centers, a GOP operative in Des Moines. “But the Trump campaign is doing all of the right things to position themselves going forward.”
