Potential late entries of former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and ex-Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick into the Democratic presidential race are casting doubt over the significance of upcoming presidential debates.
Either man’s unconventional candidacy would need to overcome the hurdle of missing the first four debate rounds and difficulty of qualifying for future stages. That amounts to a bet that the debates are little more than a much-hyped television spectacle that does little to move votes in early nominating states like Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.
Perhaps the most significant bump in support and fundraising due to a debate “moment” was for California Sen. Kamala Harris after she attacked Joe Biden in the first debate round for touting his work with segregationist senators in the 1970s and for opposing mandatory integration busing. But Harris is now struggling to poll higher than mid-single digits and laid off much of her campaign staff due to funding challenges.
The Democratic National Committee requires candidates to secure at least 200,000 individual donors plus meet a polling threshold of 4% support in at least four polls or 6% in two early state polls to participate in the December debate, and that standard could increase for future debates. Several candidates have sent out breathless fundraising emails about the need to raise money by an urgent deadline in order to join a coming debate.
Bloomberg, a billionaire who is expected to self-fund his potential campaign, may not accept individual donations, according to Axios, making it impossible for him to meet the debate threshold. Patrick would also have little time to meet the standard. More than half the candidates in the field have not met the December debate requirements.
Risking a strategy that downplays debate importance, however, could be detrimental to a late-stage candidate.
“All of the late entrants are going to need to get attention without the debate forum. It is not impossible, but late entries (with the exception of Bobby Kennedy in 1968) have a hard time getting to second stage ignition,” said Democratic pollster Peter Hart told the Washington Examiner.
Independent pollster John Zogby said most Democratic White House hopefuls couldn’t afford to skip debates.
“Participation in the debates matters a lot,” Zogby told the Washington Examiner. “We’ve already seen a winnowing-out process.”
Lower-tier candidates have condemned the qualifying thresholds and accused the DNC of prematurely slashing the historically large field of candidates through a process that is not transparent.
The first two debate rounds featured 20 candidates over two nights, while the November debate will have only 10. Eight candidates who appeared in at least one debate have dropped out of the race.
“It doesn’t make sense for Bloomberg to skip the debates,” Zogby added. “He can package himself via all the forms of media, but the voters have to see spontaneity. They have to see how someone responds to pressure. They have to see if this guy has a story that makes him like you and me.”
While the debates have not consistently contributed to immediate changes in front-runner field standings, they do help voters evaluate candidates.
“They have provided a launching pad for Kamala Harris (but she could not build on it), the debates said to voters, Joe Biden may not be the best challenger for Donald Trump. And yes, the debates have allowed a 37-year-old mayor from South Bend to be appreciated as a formidable candidate,” Hart said, referring to Pete Buttigieg.
Voters are also tuning in to the debates. The second night of the first round in June set a viewership record for presidential primary debates.
Any attempt of Bloomberg to deliberately avoid debates could be part of a strategy to shield himself from anti-billionaire scrutiny from socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a left-wing populist.
“At this point, the debates could possibly only hurt him. He’s the great unknown right now,” Zogby said, revering to Bloomberg.
Patrick, however, could benefit from participating in the debates.
“The electric speaker that he is, a two-term governor of Massachusetts — he can come in and fill in that void” left by Biden, Zogby said. “These are both risky strategies that they go against history.”
Hart suggested that someone who gains notoriety during impeachment hearings would be more likely to come from a successful late-entry candidate. “At this stage, a candidate needs quick liftoff, and that means a natural national forum such as impeachment,” he said.
