Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley‘s third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses on Monday dampened the momentum she had built and provided oxygen for her main rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), to continue his 2024 campaign.
Haley headed into the Iowa caucuses polling in second place above DeSantis but far behind former President Donald Trump. But her less rabid fan base and “life-threatening” cold temperatures meant she didn’t emerge from the Hawkeye State as the clear alternative to Trump.
Trump won 51% of the vote, with 99% of the vote counted. He was followed by DeSantis at a distant 21.2% and Haley at 19.1%. The third-place finish likely means that Haley will still have to continue her battle with DeSantis for second-place status in the primary field, which will detract from her campaign against Trump.
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Although Haley congratulated the former president during her concession speech, she firmly declared herself the chief competitor to Trump, as she ignored DeSantis. “Iowa made this Republican primary a two-person race,” Haley declared, even though she finished behind Trump and DeSantis, her closest competitor.
On Tuesday morning, Haley then declared she wouldn’t face DeSantis on the debate stage again after their sole one-on-one CNN primary debate last week, where DeSantis sometimes got the best of Haley.
“We’ve had five great debates in this campaign,” Haley said in a statement. “Unfortunately, Donald Trump has ducked all of them. He has nowhere left to hide. The next debate I do will either be with Donald Trump or with Joe Biden. I look forward to it.”
Haley is headed to New Hampshire, where she has a higher chance of taking on Trump during the Jan. 23 primary. Her campaign is already signaling she is a stronger candidate despite Iowa’s results.
“The race now moves to less Trump-friendly territory,” campaign manager Betsy Ankney wrote in a memo released late Monday night. “And the field of candidates is effectively down to two, with only Trump and Nikki Haley having substantial support in both New Hampshire and South Carolina.”
DeSantis may have bested Haley in Iowa, but in New Hampshire, where independent voters are the majority, he loses support. Trump steamrolls the GOP primary at 43.5%, according to a RealClearPolitics average of polls, while Haley lags at 29.3%.
DeSantis trails in the single digits at 6.5%.
The race then moves on to Nevada, where Trump has dominated, and South Carolina, where Haley is a former two-term governor, giving her a better advantage in the Palmetto State compared to DeSantis, though she trails Trump there as well.
“The Iowa results and the New Hampshire polls show Donald Trump is more vulnerable than
commonly believed. He is the polarizing figure he has long been,” Ankney wrote, pointing to Trump pulling 51% of voters.
Political commentators told the Washington Examiner Haley poses some threat to Trump in the Granite State, but it may not be enough to block him from the nomination.
“She basically tied for second. She might have one or two less delegates,” Woodrow Johnston, a Republican consultant, said. “And the fact that she did that well kind of really bodes well for her in New Hampshire.”
But he did concede that New Hampshire will not automatically go for Haley. “I still think Trump’s going to win New Hampshire,” Johnston said. “She’s going to probably get second place in New Hampshire and she’s going to call that a win.”
Democratic strategist Brad Bannon pointed to 49% of Iowa voters choosing not to vote for Trump as a positive sign for Haley.
“I think the fact that about half the voters didn’t support him shows there’s still wiggle room in the jockeying for the Republican nomination,” Bannon said.
Haley may have a better shot than DeSantis, Bannon added. “She’s coming on strong in New Hampshire. And she has a place to go after tonight,” he said. “And DeSantis really doesn’t. He doesn’t have any kind of campaign going on in New Hampshire at all. She’s closing in on Trump.”
Mike Murphy, longtime GOP consultant and anti-Trump Republican, said in his newsletter Tuesday morning he still thinks Haley has a shot to beat Trump next week. “But if she can’t run the table and then win in SC, I think she’s toast,” he wrote. “One fluke win in New Hampshire will not be enough, never has been. She toughened up on Trump in her concession speech, but it was clumsy and I fear too little too late.”
Haley will likely consolidate support from supporters of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who dropped out of the race last week. While supporters of Vivek Ramaswamy, who ended his campaign Monday night, will likely back Trump. What support DeSantis can pull remains to be seen. And the governor is going first to South Carolina on Tuesday before heading to New Hampshire.
“It’s still a very, very narrow pathway for Nikki Haley,” said Johnston, who also cast doubt on Haley’s assertion she is the only candidate who can defeat President Joe Biden in a general election.
“The electability thing is almost like a myth. One, it’s not a persuasive argument with most voters,” Johnston said. “There are polls that show that Nikki Haley does better, but there are just as many polls that say that Trump does better head-to-head. So really this whole idea that Nikki Haley is the most electable candidate in the general election, there’s not that many facts behind it.”
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Haley’s campaign, however, showed no sign that they are worried about Trump in a statement to the Washington Examiner Monday.
“Nikki Haley is the only candidate with momentum, but we take nothing for granted. Nikki is working hard to earn every vote in all the early states,” AnnMarie Graham-Barnes said. “This is clearly a two-person race between Nikki’s vision for a strong and proud America and Trump’s chaos and drama of the past.”
Samantha-Jo Roth contributed to this story.
