President Joe Biden‘s approval rating has been underwater for most of his presidency, but Republicans have failed to capitalize on it in several key races in the past two years.
In elections held outside traditional times, Republicans have lost key battles, including two House races in previously GOP-held seats. Here are three instances in which the GOP was unable to capitalize on Biden’s unpopularity in pivotal elections.
New York’s 3rd Congressional District (2024 special election)
The House of Representatives expelled New York Rep. George Santos, a Republican, in December 2023 after a House Ethics Committee report detailed his alleged misuse of campaign funds and falsification of Federal Election Commission reports, leaving Republicans vulnerable to losing the swing seat in the special election on Tuesday.
Less than 16 months after the seat was flipped by Santos, its previous occupant, former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, won the special election over Republican Mazi Pilip. The Democratic flip means the GOP’s majority in the House of Representatives is reduced to a 219-213 advantage once Suozzi is sworn in.
The loss for Republicans could be the first in a string of losses in New York amid myriad problems for the GOP in the Empire State.
Alaska’s at-large congressional district (2022 special election)
Following the death of longtime Alaska Rep. Don Young, a Republican, in March 2022, a special election was ordered to fill his seat and would mark the first usage of the state’s ranked choice voting for a general election.
The state has a partisan voting index of Republican +8, according to the Cook Political Report, and the House seat had been in GOP control since 1973 but flipped in the August 2022 special election. Democrat Mary Peltola defeated two Republicans, former Gov. Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III, in the race and won the rematch in the general election in November.
Republicans had been hoping for a “red wave” in the November 2022 elections, but the loss in Alaska’s House race can now be seen as a sign of the coming struggles the party would see in that election.
Wisconsin Supreme Court seat (April 2023)
After 15 years with a right-leaning majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, Milwaukee Judge Janet Protasiewicz defeated former Justice Daniel Kelly to flip control of the high court in the Badger State.
The election in April 2023 came months after the state split between the two major parties in its biggest races in the midterm elections, reelecting Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI) and Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI). The loss for the GOP came in a key state for the presidential election in 2024 and where Biden’s approval rating has remained underwater.
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The last time Republicans appeared to be on the road to victory heading into a major election was going into the midterm elections in November 2022. But despite its constant polling lead in several key races, the party significantly underperformed.
Heading into the 2024 election, the GOP again holds polling advantages in several key races and against Biden.
