Democrats in Wisconsin have a chance to flip the State Assembly in their favor for the first time in over a decade under the state’s new legislative maps.
The new maps are set to make Wisconsin more competitive as both parties have a realistic chance to control the Assembly for the first time in 12 years. Republicans are heavily favored to keep control of the state Senate.
Chaz Nuttycombe, the founder of CNalysis (a “nonpartisan state legislative election analysis” group, according to its X account), told the Recombobulation Area that the Republicans were the “slight favorites to win the Assembly, and they’re certain to win the Senate.” CNalysis reportedly accurately predicted all of Virginia’s state races last year.
Since 2011, when Wisconsin’s legislative maps were implemented heavily in favor of the state GOP, Republicans held at least 60 of the state’s 99 Assembly seats for the last 12 years. For 28 of the last 30 years, Republicans held on to a majority of the state’s Assembly, according to the publication.
Despite Wisconsin’s nearly even split between Democrats and Republicans in the state, Republicans have a 64-35 majority in the Assembly and a 22-10 majority in the Senate.
“Wisconsinites want fair maps, and Wisconsinites deserve fair maps. So, today, Wisconsinites, I’m enacting fair maps for the great state of Wisconsin,” Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI) said in February when he signed the maps into law. “This will be the first time in over 50 years that Wisconsin will have fair legislative maps enacted through the legislative process rather than through the courts.”
CNalysis predicts 49 Republican seats, 45 Democratic seats, and five “toss-ups,” an 11-seat net increase for Democrats in the Assembly. Republican Assembly Speaker Robin Vos said he believed Republicans can win in the Badger State under the new maps as they have “better policy ideas for the state of Wisconsin.”
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Republicans are projected to hold on to their Senate majority because Senate terms in the state last four years, meaning only half of the chamber is up for election this fall.
The Wisconsin Supreme Court struck down the previous legislative maps in December for being unconstitutional. The previous maps were widely considered to be among the most gerrymandered in the country.
