SAN FRANCISCO — Four of the five game changers that could flip control of the U.S. House have finally been called in California, though the ugliest fight between two Democratic rivals is still up in the air.
Republicans now hold a three-seat majority in the lower chamber of Congress. Of the 16 House districts won by President Joe Biden in 2020 but are now in GOP hands, five are in California. And 10 of the 72 most competitive House races across the country are also in the state and involve several of the same districts in which races were won by razor-thin margins two years ago, according to the Cook Political Report.
Biden and former President Donald Trump both swept their primary contests in the state, picking up 424 delegates and 169 delegates, respectively.
California has a jungle primary for its state races, meaning the top two finishers, regardless of party, make it through to a general election matchup in November.
Here is how four of the five most closely-watched House races in the Golden State played out. The final seat, the 22nd District, is ongoing
Here is how four of the five most closely-watched House races in the Golden State played out. The fifth race, the 22nd District, has yet to be called. It features incumbent Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) fending off challenges from State Sen. Melissa Hurtado (D-CA), former Assemblyman Rudy Salas, and Republican Chris Mathys.
House District 13
Two years ago, Rep. John Duarte (R-CA) won this San Joaquin Valley district by 564 votes, making it the second-closest midterm election in the nation behind Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO).
This year, Democrats are gearing up for a rematch, ready to take down the freshman lawmaker.
Both Duarte and his chief rival Democratic Assemblyman Adam Gray, will square off against one another in November. Each ran uncontested in the primary election.
Following Duarte’s win, the National Republican Congressional Committee praised him for hitting “the ground running and hasn’t let up.” They also highlighted his work across the aisle on “tackling the fentanyl crisis, lowering costs and securing local police funding.”
Duarte is a fourth-generation farmer who grows almonds, pistachios, and grapes at his family’s Duarte Nursery, which is one of the largest in the country. He made headlines for fighting the federal government over claims he violated the Clean Water Act by damaging wetlands to plant wheat. He was also sued by the Army Corps of Engineers and the Environmental Protection Agency. Duarte eventually settled the case, and instead of paying several million dollars in fines, he wrote the government a check for $1.1 million.
Duarte won the seat back for Republicans in 2022 after Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) was forced to run elsewhere due to redistricting. His win marked the first time a Republican won the district in decades.
During Gray’s victory party, he told the Merced County Times that he felt “great” heading into the general election.
“Both John and I will advance to the November election, but just with the enthusiasm and energy in this campaign, there are more people just pouring out to help than I’ve ever seen,” he said. “I think people are just fed up with what is going on in Washington and they’re fed up with the negativity in politics.”
Gray was elected to the state Assembly in 2012. He made a name for himself by challenging the state water board and called for an audit of California’s water agencies this year.
House District 27
California’s Antelope Valley is also a key battleground for Republicans and Democrats.
In Los Angeles County’s 27th District, Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA) and Democrat George Whitesides, the former CEO of Virgin Galactic, advanced to the general election, beating out challenger Steve Hill for the top two spots.
Hill, a former prison guard and self-described satanist, claimed his experience dealing with prison riots would make Congress seem tame in comparison.
Garcia pulled in 56.8% of the vote to Whitesides’s 31.6%, with about 75% of the ballots counted, according to the Associated Press. Hill had 11.7% of the vote.
Whitesides outraised Garcia in the last quarter of 2022, raising $771,000 compared to Garcia’s $562,000. Whitesides’s personal wealth and the ease with which he is willing to tap it for his campaign has become a line of attack for Republicans.
“George Whitesides is a radical far-left megadonor trying to purchase a congressional seat, and Santa Clarita Valley and Antelope Valley families will see right through him,” Ben Petersen, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, told Roll Call in December.
Garcia is a former U.S. Naval officer who won a special election in May 2020 against Democrat Christy Smith for the remainder of former Rep. Katie Hill (D-CA) House seat. He won his first full term later that year by less than a percentage point in the same district against Smith. Following redistricting, Garcia and Smith faced off again, this time for the 27th Congressional District, which he won by more than 6 points.
House District 41
California’s 41st District race will feature a November matchup between Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA) and Democratic challenger Will Rollins.
Calvert had 50.4% of the vote to Rollins’s 41.4%, with about 58% of the ballots counted, according to the Associated Press. Democratic candidate Anna Nevenic pulled in 8.6% of the vote.
In 2022, Rollins lost to Calvert by less than five percentage points. However, a new legislative map and the addition of Palm Springs, California, to the district has made it more friendly for Democrats.
“The race is pivotal because the Republicans have a very thin majority in the House,” Jack Pitney, a Claremont McKenna College politics professor, told the Mercury News. “Democrats can win control by flipping just a few seats.”
“Every close race will get enormous national attention, and this race will be one of them. The race could come down to a few thousand or even a few hundred votes,” he said.
A Cook Political Report elections analyst said redistricting and the “types of voters that are moving into Riverside County” are what make the 41st District race so competitive.
Rollins told the local paper that despite his defeat against Calvert in 2022, his campaign was able to build “a big tent coalition that included Democrats, independents, and Republicans,” which he predicted would make it to the general election Tuesday.
Calvin Moore, a Calvert campaign spokesman, said his candidate was also “building a broad coalition of Californians who are fed up with the way things are going now.”
In his campaign video, Rollins railed against Fox News and QAnon for spreading and profiting off of conspiracy theories.
House District 47
Another close House race is in the largely coastal district that encompasses a large portion of Orange County. It’s a spot vacated by Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA), who gave up her costly and hard-fought flip in the state’s 47th District for a shot at the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s Senate seat. Porter lost her race Tuesday to Rep. Adam Schiff (R-CA) and Republican baseball star Steve Garvey.
The two candidates who will be vying for her old seat are Republican Scott Baugh and state Sen. Dave Min (D-CA).
Baugh garnered 32.5% of the vote to Min’s 26%, with about 65% of the ballots counted, according to the Associated Press.
There were 10 candidates vying for the top two spots.
Two years ago, Porter beat back a challenge from Baugh. With her out of the race, Baugh believes he’s got a fighting shot at flipping the seat back. He is endorsed by the state GOP and served as the Orange County GOP chairman for more than a decade. Despite his successful primary night showing, Baugh is bringing some baggage into the general election. In 1999, Baugh agreed to pay a $47,000 fine for nine violations of the state Political Reform Act linked to misconduct allegations in his 1995 race to the state Assembly. In 2018, he unsuccessfully ran to unseat former GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher but didn’t advance past the primaries.
Baugh is running on a conservative-for-California platform. He opposes same-sex marriage and wants to restrict abortion access. He’s also campaigning on a promise to lower taxes and strengthen the border.
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Min defined his victory on Wednesday as “not just about winning an election.”
“It’s about the future we are collectively shaping,” he said in a statement. “It’s about reclaiming the House for Democrats and Orange County families. It’s about rejecting the divisive, Trump-supporting MAGA politics that our opponent, Scott Baugh, represents. It’s about ensuring that our voices are heard loud and clear in Washington.”
