EXCLUSIVE — Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) has dismissed the lineup of Democratic challengers trying to unseat her.
The latest move by Democrats to amplify their belief that Florida is in play in the 2024 election is a new poll claiming that Luna is vulnerable.
The poll, commissioned by Luna’s opponent Whitney Fox and provided to the Washington Examiner, only had 400 respondents, but it highlights how Democrats believe, or hope, that the Sunshine State could be picked off in five months’ time.
Democratic firm GQR Research polled 401 general election voters in Florida’s 13th Congressional District between May 14 and 20, 2024, for Fox. More than 340,000 votes were cast in Luna’s 2022 contest. Slightly more than half, 55%, of respondents were interviewed live while the rest replied virtually. The poll had a margin of error of 4.9 points.
Fox’s poll suggested the freshman House Freedom Caucus member is more vulnerable than believed. While a generic poll has Luna up by 7 percentage points, 50% to 43%, the gap narrows to 51% to 46% when more biographical information is given.
Luna falls behind Fox, 49%-47%, in an “informed vote” when respondents were asked about each named candidate, and they are familiar with Luna’s positions on abortion, cutting Social Security and Medicare, removing the $35 cap on insulin, and keeping Medicare from being allowed to negotiate drug prices.
“Luna’s position on abortion is clearly out of step with the district and is her largest vulnerability,
especially with key demographics like registered NPA voters, women, and voters over 50,” according to the poll summary. “Some Republicans even disagree with Luna’s positions. The reproductive rights ballot measure and its potential to impact turnout creates an opportunity for Fox to win.”
Luna told the Washington Examiner her Democratic opponents are “not serious.”
“Last cycle, I was outspent 12:1. I told voters exactly who I was and have fulfilled every one of my campaign promises,” she said. “You cannot buy Pinellas County, and my constituents know I will continue to fight for them here in D.C. The DNC has attempted to recruit a few candidates against me as I am problematic for them regarding their identity politics indoctrination campaigns nationally. However, the six candidates running against me are not serious and should probably look into what Congress does. As of right now, many of them don’t even understand the basics when it comes to legislation.”
The poll could also be affected by the wording of questions and information given to respondents.
“Luna falls behind Fox as voters learn about her extreme positions like supporting a national abortion ban without exceptions for rape, incest, or the life of the mother, cutting Social Security and healthcare — removing the $35 cap on insulin, and blocking Medicare from being able to negotiate lower costs for prescription drugs,” the summary of the poll read.
The poll summary provided to the Washington Examiner also didn’t include questions about any of the other four Democrats Fox is competing with in August’s primary.
Democrats have been bullish on forcing Florida back into the swing-state column, primarily by highlighting an abortion amendment on the ballot this year that would establish a constitutional right to abortion in the state.
“Our polling results clearly show Florida’s 13th Congressional District is in play this November and is the most flippable House seat in Florida,” Fox’s campaign manager James Corti said.
Corti also pointed to how Luna “underperformed other Republicans by 6 percentage points in 2022 when Democratic turnout was at a decade low.”
However, Luna won her last race by 8 percentage points, easily dispatching Democrat Eric Lynn by nearly 30,000 votes. Fox’s team is banking on incumbent fatigue to propel the Democrat to a victory, in addition to momentum from the repeal of Roe v. Wade.
Fox is also largely unknown — 6% of voters have a favorable opinion of her and 5% unfavorable, compared to 42% of voters having a favorable opinion of Luna and 32% unfavorable.
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The Florida primary, held in August, is one of the latest in the country. Fox is expected to win, with a clear advantage in fundraising and endorsements.
The Cook Political Report has Florida’s 13th District as likely Republican at R+6.
