Democrats gained ground with young men in the 2025 off-cycle contests, but turning those gains into a durable midterm edge in 2026 will be difficult for a party still split on major issues.
Network exit polls show a pattern across several states: in Virginia, Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger posted her strongest numbers with men aged 18 to 29; in New Jersey, Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill carried the group by 14 points over Jack Ciattarelli; and in New York City, Mayor.-elect Zohran Mamdani won support from more than 6-in-10 men of the youngest bracket.
The progress comes despite concern among Democrats that economic frustration, cultural drift, and the pull of conservative “manosphere” influencers have pushed young men to the Right. President Donald Trump’s success with “podcast bros” helped power his 2024 win and reshaped how politicians court voters, with male-driven shows now hosting would-be 2028 contenders and pushing issues like the demands to release Epstein’s files.
Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said the shift may have less to do with cultural realignment and more with economic frustration aimed at President Donald Trump. He argued that young men “took Trump at his word that he’d bring prices down on Day One of a second term,” and are now reacting to a promise he “failed to deliver.”
Bannon said the pattern mirrors what’s happening with other groups Trump improved with in 2024, noting that Hispanics and blue-collar workers “have dropped off the map” as rising costs remain the central concern for voters. He added that younger men tend to be more socially liberal than older men, making Trump’s focus on immigration and cultural clashes even less effective. Together, he argued, those dynamics have “eliminated all the advantages” Trump created two years ago.
Those debates highlight a broader disagreement within the party about what young men want. Some Democrats argue that affordability and economic stability must remain the core message, citing the success of Spanberger and Sherrill with kitchen-table appeals. Others believe Democrats risk losing younger men unless they take a sharper stance on Gaza, student debt, and housing, issues that fueled Mamdani’s surge but remain divisive in swing states.
Asked whether ideological divides could threaten Democrats’ gains with young men, Democratic strategist Jon Reinish said those tensions are often overstated in political commentary. “I think that the differences are more keenly felt by elites than they are with voters at large,” Reinish said. What younger voters overwhelmingly share, he argued, is a sense that everyday life has become unaffordable. “Everybody agrees that the country has gotten… prohibitively expensive.” That common experience, he added, is one reason both moderates and left-wing candidates resonated with young men this year despite their ideological differences.
Reinish said that while Mamdani, Spanberger, and Sherrill represent “two different, distinct categories of the party,” they all succeeded by centering economic mobility and speaking to voters where they actually are. “They led with issues of affordability and also they were young and knew how to use social media,” he said. “Take all of those things together, and you’re going to do a lot better with guys.”
Another factor, he said, was their willingness to meet voters in nontraditional media spaces. “You are not going to get the vast majority of young men amped up and super interested in your candidacy if you’re limiting your media appearances to Morning Joe and network news,” Reinish said. “You’ve got to go everywhere, and these three people did, and it worked.”
Reinish said Trump may now be undermining his own standing with younger men by dismissing their top concern. He pointed to a CNN chyron that aired during a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, showing Trump calling affordability “a Democrat hoax,” adding, “Thanks for the gift, Mr. President.”
DNC Chair Ken Martin pushed back on the idea that Democrats still face a structural weakness with young men, arguing the off-year results should put that narrative to rest.
“I never want to hear again that the Democratic Party has a problem with young men,” Martin said at a press conference last month.
He said the gains reflected a message that resonated broadly: “Many young voters feel disillusioned by limited job prospects and high costs,” frustrations he believes they direct at the Trump administration.
Republicans reject the idea that young men are moving left. GOP strategist Gregg Keller said the off-year numbers reflect turnout, not realignment. “Eighteen to 35-year-old males have broken strongly in the Republican ranks… it is decisive,” he said, noting the trend “dates back to… roughly the time of COVID.” Keller argued Democrats benefited from lower GOP participation. “Voting falls off when Donald Trump is not on the ballot and when it’s an off-year election,” he said, adding that many contests were in “traditionally blue” areas.
Economic frustration also shaped the results, Keller said. “Inflation has not gone away,” he said, though it “has moderated hugely since the President got in and since Biden got out.” He credited the White House’s pivot toward affordability messaging as politically savvy, saying, “When the President and the White House came out and said that they’re going to be talking about affordability, as their No. 1 issue, I think that was a very positive sign.”
Keller said Republicans still retain cultural issues that motivate younger men. “We do have a couple of issues out there that are always going to drive young male voters,” he said. “I’m thinking about the trans issue, boys and girls locker rooms, men playing women’s sports.” The question, he said, is whether those topics will still resonate “given the state of the economy come the election.”
He pointed to Virginia as evidence of GOP vulnerability. “Winsome-Sears is a nice lady, but she was not a great statewide candidate,” he said. “If the economy is not good and we have candidates who don’t inspire voters… we’re going to be facing some headwinds.” Still, Keller said the GOP enters 2026 in strong shape: “I think we’re well positioned… Republicans and the White House are trained on the right message now.”
DNC CHAIR ‘NEVER WANTS TO HEAR AGAIN’ THAT DEMOCRATS HAVE ‘PROBLEM WITH YOUNG MEN’
In the end, strategists in both parties acknowledge a similar reality: young men are responding primarily to economic conditions rather than deep partisan pull. Democrats believe affordability concerns may keep this group in their column. Republicans argue that cultural issues and ongoing economic unease could draw them back. After emerging as a decisive force in 2024, young men are poised to shape 2026 in much the same way, but for now, both parties concede they don’t know which way they’ll break.
