Tuesday’s primaries across three states revealed unexpected warning signs for incumbents heading into the 2026 cycle, with several sitting lawmakers struggling or falling outright even as reelection rates historically remain among the highest in American politics.
The most dramatic upset came in Texas, where Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) lost his primary by double digits to state Rep. Steve Toth. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) also failed to clear the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff, forcing the longtime incumbent into another round of voting.
Democrats also faced turbulence. Longtime Texas Rep. Al Green (D-TX) was pushed into a runoff with freshman Rep. Christian Menefee (D-TX) in a Houston-area district after Texas redrew its congressional map. In North Carolina, Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-NC) faced an unexpectedly competitive challenge from Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam in a deeply Democratic district.
Taken together, the results offer an early snapshot of the political environment heading into the midterm cycle, where incumbents in both parties are navigating ideological pressure from primary voters and broader frustration with Washington.
“Across the board, voters are pissed,” said Casey Burgat, director of the Legislative Affairs Program at George Washington University. “They differ in who they’re mad at and why, but it’s just getting increasingly hard to be an incumbent.”
Incumbents still enjoy one of the strongest advantages in American politics. Sitting members of Congress routinely win reelection at rates above 90%, according to Ballotpedia.
But the first major primaries of the 2026 cycle suggest the political terrain may be shifting.
Texas provided the clearest example. The state redrew its congressional districts last year, reshaping several races and forcing multiple incumbents into new political terrain.
Crenshaw, a former Navy SEAL known for his independent streak, had long drawn criticism from the party’s hard-right flank. Toth capitalized on attacks accusing the congressman of insufficient loyalty to President Donald Trump. Crenshaw was the only House Republican in Texas who did not secure Trump’s endorsement, while Toth received late backing from Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
Republican strategist Brian Seitchik said the results reinforced another reality shaping GOP primaries: The continued power of Trump’s backing.
“The story on the Republican side isn’t the waning power of incumbency,” Seitchik said, speaking to the Washington Examiner. “It’s the continued power of the Trump endorsement.”
Trump himself underscored that dynamic Wednesday, writing on Truth Social that he plans to soon endorse in the Texas Republican Senate runoff between Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. The president suggested that whichever candidate does not receive his backing should drop out to unify the party ahead of the general election.
Democrats, meanwhile, are navigating their own internal tensions.
“There’s disenchantment about Democrats not fighting back hard enough in Washington,” said Dallas Jones, a Democratic strategist based in Houston. “People want to see more of that.”
Jones said the unusual matchup between Green and Menefee illustrates how redistricting can intensify those pressures.
“These voters have lost two members of Congress in one year,” Jones said. “That accelerates the question of whether it’s time to do something different.”
Analysts caution that each of Tuesday’s races carries its own explanation, from redistricting battles to strong challengers or unique local dynamics.
“There are reasons to explain each one of the incumbent losses,” Burgat said. “Everything kind of has an asterisk next to it.”
Still, the results also reflect a broader trend shaping primaries in both parties: ideological pressure from activists pushing candidates to prove their loyalty to party orthodoxy.
“The challengers never come from the moderate side of the primary,” Burgat said. “It’s always a race to the right or the left.”
Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) is also headed into a runoff after finishing short of the 50% threshold against pro-gun activist Brandon Herrera. The contest marks a rematch of their 2024 primary, when Herrera pushed Gonzales into a runoff that the incumbent ultimately won by a narrow margin.
The fight comes as Gonzales is embroiled in a scandal after text messages surfaced allegedly showing the congressman sending explicit sexual messages to a former staffer who died by setting herself on fire last year.
Gonzales has pledged to stay in the race and make his side of the story clear. The House Ethics Committee, meanwhile, has formed a special subcommittee to investigate the allegations against him.
The challenge for incumbents isn’t going away anytime soon. According to a report from Axios, at least 30 House Democrats are facing challengers who have raised $100,000 or more, with those races accounting for more than $64 million in fundraising so far this cycle.
In California, mid-decade redistricting has placed Republican Reps. Ken Calvert (R-CA) and Young Kim (R-CA) are on a potential collision course for the same seat. In Kentucky, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) is facing a challenge from Ed Gallrein, who has the backing of President Donald Trump.
FOUR TAKEAWAYS FROM FIRST PRIMARY ELECTION OF 2026
For now, Burgat said the early primaries should not be mistaken for a collapse of incumbency but rather a reminder that even strong political advantages can erode when voter frustration meets a credible challenger.
“Every cycle you catch one or two incumbents that nobody had on the upset bingo card,” he said.
“And when frustration with the establishment builds, that’s when you start to see surprises.”
