Republicans were left pondering how to motivate grassroots turnout for Herschel Walker in a December runoff versus Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) after Democrats preserved their majority with wins in Nevada and Arizona.
For days since the midterm elections, Republicans flooded inboxes with email fundraising appeals imploring grassroots conservatives to support efforts to elect Walker in a Dec. 6 runoff and “turn the Senate red.” But after Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) and Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) were declared winners, closing Republicans’ path to control of the upper chamber, the party was forced to recalibrate its pitch to oust Warnock, who finished ahead of Walker Tuesday but fell a whisker shy of 50% of the vote.
As of Sunday morning, it was unclear whether Republicans had grappled with what happened and settled on a new message.
DEMOCRATS HOLD SENATE MAJORITY IN MIDTERM ELECTIONS STUNNER
The GOP entered the 2022 election cycle needing to gain a single Senate seat to win a majority that Democrats enjoy courtesy of the tiebreaking vote wielded by Vice President Kamala Harris. Based on the map of seats up for election this year, Republican prospects were favorable. Democrats were on defense in a handful of swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire — while Republicans were on defense mostly in red states.
Republicans were optimistic, especially as Election Day approached. President Joe Biden’s job approval rating was underwater, and Democrats appeared on their heels on issues such as inflation, crime, and border security. Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, boldly predicted the GOP would gain a minimum of two seats on Nov. 8, and possibly four. But one by one, the party found myriad paths to the majority blocked.
After Sen.-elect John Fetterman gained a seat for his party by defeating Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, and after Walker came up short against Warnock in Georgia, the Republicans were left with just three options: oust Democratic incumbents in Arizona and Nevada, or defeat either Cortez Masto or Kelly — and beat Warnock in the Georgia runoff. With Kelly and Cortez Masto reelected, all GOP options for winning the majority are closed.
“Voters across the country have delivered a resounding endorsement of Democrats’ Senate majority,” Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a statement. “Now our work continues in Georgia to ensure Herschel Walker is defeated and Rev. Warnock is re-elected.”
Days earlier, the DSCC announced plans to spend $7 million to spur turnout in Georgia for the runoff as Warnock jumped back on the campaign trail to court voters. The contest could be close — Gov. Brian Kemp easily defeated Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams in the midterm elections — and Democrats have much to fight for. Beat Walker, and they can pad their 50-seat majority and boast of increasing their ranks in a difficult political environment.
The NRSC, Republican National Committee, and Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), also sprang into action this week. The leading GOP groups, plus the Walker campaign, are collaborating to raise money, deploy field troops, and blitz Georgia airwaves and other platforms with advertising. Their challenge is convincing Republican voters to show up in December without the fate of the Senate majority on the line.
Motivating Republican voters to show up for an irregular election in the middle of the holiday season is no easy task under these circumstances. But the party’s task is doubly hard given the outcome of Tuesday’s elections. Top Republicans were predicting a red tsunami would sweep the party’s candidates to power up and down the ballot and across the country. In Georgia, as Walker’s showdown with Warnock approached, the Republican predicted victory without a runoff.
Instead, Walker barely forced Warnock into a second round of voting, and Democratic congressional candidates delivered Biden the best midterm election performance in decades for the party occupying the White House. The Democrats not only held the Senate, but they are also poised to fall just short of holding their House majority despite entering Election Day defending an advantage that amounted to no more than five seats.
The disappointment among grassroots Republicans is palpable, with recriminations flying back and forth at all levels of the GOP establishment. Some quarters of the party are blaming McConnell; some are blaming former President Donald Trump, who recruited Walker into the Georgia Senate race; some are blaming House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). Still others are blaming any number of prominent Republican officials.
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Some top Republicans are acknowledging that creating a sense of purpose behind the Senate runoff in Georgia, and rallying grassroots participation for Walker, could be a tall order under these conditions. Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan conceded Sunday in an interview on CNN’s State of the Union that the contest is simply “not as consequential” as it would have been if the Senate majority was in play.
“We still would like to win Georgia, but we’re not going to win back the Senate as a result,” Hogan said.
