Two different polls tell two competing stories about the fight between the Democratic establishment and the far-left candidates who have increasingly been winning the party’s primaries.
In Wisconsin, establishment Democrats have been working to deny state Rep. Francesca Hong, a Democratic Socialists of America member, their party’s gubernatorial nomination by luring Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley back into the race and nudging Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez out.
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A new State Navigator poll suggests this bid to consolidate the non-socialist vote behind Crowley and against Hong isn’t working yet. Hong leads with 44% of the vote, well ahead of Crowley, who is at 15%. Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is right behind Crowley at 14%, suggesting the non-socialists haven’t quite coalesced. Rodriguez is still drawing 4%. Hong has tried to distance herself from aspects of the DSA platform.
In Michigan, came a new Glengariff poll showing Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers leading progressive Democrat Abdul el Sayed by 49% to 38.7% while narrowly trailing the more establishment-friendly Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) with 44.7% to her 45.5%.
While that isn’t a poll measuring how Michigan Democrats will vote in the Senate primary, it ought to give some of those voters pause about nominating el Sayed at the precise moment the momentum in the race appears to be shifting against him. The same pollster previously showed Stevens leading el Sayed in the primary by 7 points.
The RealClearPolitics polling average had recently been showing both Democrats faring about the same against Rogers, who narrowly lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) in 2024, clinging to a slim 0.5-point lead.
Slotkin beat Rogers by 0.34 points nearly two years ago. President Donald Trump was at the top of the ticket and carrying Michigan at the time. But Slotkin was also a less progressive candidate than el Sayed, though his supporters argue Democrats would be demoralized by a Stevens primary win.
Other pollsters, like the Democratic firm Data for Progress, still have el Sayed way ahead, which contributes to his 1.6-point edge in the RealClearPolitics average. Justin Amash, a former Michigan Republican congressman who is neutral in the race, expressed skepticism that there would be such a big difference between el Sayed and Stevens in a general election against Rogers.
Democratic insiders are nevertheless nervous about el Sayed’s general election prospects in what has become a battleground state. They have the same feelings about Hong in Wisconsin, a state that — like Michigan — voted for Trump in two of the last three presidential elections.
The Maine Senate race made Democrats particularly jittery about the socialist surge within their party, as Graham Platner looked poised to fall behind Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME). Platner was pushed out, but replaced with a candidate much like himself.
With socialists dominating the headlines, some polls have found the Democrats’ generic congressional ballot advantage over Republicans narrowing. A CBS News-YouGov poll showed just 41% saying Democrats’ policies would help with affordability, a crucial issue in the midterm elections, to 59% who said either they won’t change anything or will actually hurt.
Since the Platner debacle, Democrats have made a number of moves aimed at pushing back against the left-wing trend. They have circled the wagons around Stevens in Michigan. They have attempted to shake up the governor’s race in Wisconsin. They have opted to kick off their 2028 presidential nomination contest in South Carolina, where black voters have twice decisively rejected Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), rather than New Hampshire, where Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) led in a recent poll.
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Some of these moves initially appear to be more successful than others, but time will tell.
The Michigan Democratic Senate primary is next Tuesday, while the Wisconsin Democrats’ gubernatorial contest is the following week.
