The percentage of independent voters who “lean more toward the Democratic Party” has ticked upwards ahead of November’s midterm elections, according to the latest quarterly party affiliation data aggregated by Gallup.

Of the respondents in the Q2 survey who considered themselves neither a Republican nor a Democrat, 49% said they lean toward the Democratic Party, compared with 39% who prefer the Republican Party. That split has increased by four percentage points in favor of Democrats since the first quarter of 2025, when President Donald Trump returned to the White House for his second term.