Speaking to the Republican Jewish Coalition in Washington, D.C., this month, Donald Trump declined to commit to an undivided Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Ben Carson, among other things, mispronounced the name of the terrorist group Hamas as “hummus” at the same gathering.
Neither Republican presidential hopeful’s address to the group went over particularly well. But for Carson it was part of a growing narrative that verbal miscues were suddenly derailing the retired neurosurgeon’s campaign, while Trump remains impervious to them.
Even amid the controversy over Trump’s call for a temporary ban on foreign Muslims entering the United States, the two candidates seem to be headed in opposite directions. Carson has lost his lead in Iowa and is now tied for third place nationally with Marco Rubio, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, falling behind Ted Cruz. He has gone from gaining on Trump in South Carolina to being behind by better than 10 points.
Trump continues to lead nationally by double digits, with a December CBS/New York Times poll showing his numbers once again climbing north of 30 percent. While Cruz bested Trump in one recent Iowa poll, most of the others still show the billionaire in the lead. There is less ambiguity about New Hampshire and South Carolina: Trump is ahead in both states.
Republicans told the Washington Examiner that there is a big difference between Trump’s gaffes and Carson’s. So far, they said, Trump’s missteps aren’t undermining his supporters’ confidence in the way Carson’s are.
“No matter what you think of what he has to say, Trump exudes confidence,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “Carson gets that deer in the headlights look when he makes a mistake or doesn’t know what he’s talking about. The voters might not know that you’re wrong about an issue, but they will recognize a deer in the headlights.”
Paradoxically, Trump may benefit from his willingness to bluster through conflicts and even factual errors rather than apologizing for them. Meanwhile, Carson’s own camp has at times signaled that their candidate is dealing with a learning curve on major public policy issues.
While Trump and Carson are both political neophytes, the former has far greater experience dealing with the national media than the latter. Trump has been widely interviewed, has a proven track record of generating ratings as a reality television star, has personal relationships with some of the high-profile journalists and TV personalities covering him and began talking about political issues in public years before finally running for office.
None of this is true of Carson, whose impressive personal story had attracted attention before and who occasionally expressed his political opinions prior to challenging President Obama at the National Prayer Breakfast in 2013. But he has never had the level of exposure that would prepare him for the level of scrutiny a presidential candidate faces.
O’Connell also noted that Trump can be adept at walking back untenable positions without acknowledging he has done so. When he proposed his Muslim ban, it was unclear whether American citizens and military personnel would be affected. He has gradually limited its scope in subsequent interviews and emphasized more that it would be a temporary measure, all while insisting that this was always the case.
From the Paris attacks to the San Bernardino shootings, public concerns about terrorism have risen. A CBS/New York Times poll found that terrorism beat the economy as the top popular concern for the first time since 2006. What Trump’s detractors see as gaffes on immigration and Islam, his supporters see as evidence he is tough enough to confront this threat. Carson’s gaffes haven’t inspired the same confidence,
Finally, even at Carson’s peak his support was softer than Trump’s. When he briefly overtook Trump nationally in October, four-fifths of Carson’s supporters were open to changing their minds while more than half of Trump’s weren’t.
Apparently, not all gaffes are created equal.
