The midterm elections are historically an uphill battle for the political party that occupies the White House. When President Barack Obama was sitting in the Oval Office, the Democrats held the majority in both chambers of Congress. In the 2010 midterm elections, House Republicans gained 63 seats to take the majority. In the 2006 midterm elections during George W. Bush’s presidency, Democrats gained 31 seats, flipping control of the House.
House Republicans face a similar dilemma in 2018 — the special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District was a strong wake-up call for Republicans. The Democratic base is clearly fired up and motivated — PA-18 was long held by Tim Murphy, not to mention that President Trump won the district by 20 points in the 2016 election. Rick Saccone was a weak candidate that lacked fundraising skills to take on Rep. Conor Lamb, D-Pa., who was a quality candidate. It will be hard for Democrats to replicate him all over the country; however, that still doesn’t negate that Republicans have a lot of work to do.
Trump faces low approval ratings, matched with history being on the side of the Democrats. They simply need to flip 24 seats to win back the majority. The political environment right now is very tough for Republicans and one thing is certain: Quality candidates and good campaigning matter.
Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., is a case study on how Republicans can win in tough political environments with a motivated Democratic base. I’ve joked around before about how I wish we could clone her; since that is not possible (yet), I think Republicans can learn a lot from her successful campaigns. In NY-21, the district was previously held by a Democrat. In fact, Obama won the district twice. Currently, the district barely leans Republican (R+4). However, Stefanik won the district in 2014 by 24 points and in 2016 by 37.
1. Focus on your district first:
People are fed up with politicians breaking their promises and abandoning their constituents for Washington politics. The 2016 election is proof of that. There are some members of Congress that can get caught up in the D.C. machine, focusing on national politics and re-election instead of the priorities of their district. Stefanik has delivered real results for her district and focused on doing what is right for them, even if she must vote against her own political party. She has focused on local issues that matter to her constituents. Since she was sworn in, Stefanik has made more than 660 stops across the district at small businesses, farms, schools, and more, speaking with the hardworking families that she represents. She introduced a bill to expand Pell grant access so that students in her district and across the nation can access this critical financial aid resource during summer months. This has helped many students in her district pursue their dreams. Fort Drum is located in her district as well, and she has consistently fought for men and women in uniform. By authoring a bipartisan letter to Obama as well as members of Congress and the New York State Senate, she ensured that Fort Drum received zero cuts to the 16,000 soldiers located at the base.
2. Focus on 21st century solutions for the next generation:
Republicans clearly have a millennial problem. Millennials are now the largest voting generation in America. Pew Research Center just released alarming data trends for Republicans: 70 percent of millennial women now affiliate with the Democratic Party or lean Democratic — up from 56 percent who did so in 2013. The report also shows an aging problem for Republicans — the percentage of leaning-Republican voters over age 50 has climbed from 39 percent in 1997 to 47 percent in 2007 to 57 percent today. Republicans desperately need more quality candidates that have 21st century ideas and solutions to 21st century issues.
It is no surprise that the youngest woman ever elected to Congress is leading by providing these solutions. Stefanik has taken on issues like climate change, that previous Republicans have either denied or not focused on. She hasn’t let Democrats monopolize issues. Instead she has introduced alternative Republican solutions. One recent bill that Stefanik introduced is focused on national security and the benefits of Artificial Intelligence, ensuring that America leads with cutting edge technology. Another issue that Stefanik has addressed is student loan debt, which is crushing most millennials.
Republicans have shied away from this issue, allowing Democrats to monopolize it, proposing unattainable ideas like “free college” for everyone. Stefanik introduced legislation to establish a 401K-style process for employers to make student loan principal and interest payments on behalf of their employees. The employer could contribute up to $10,000 annually for loan reduction, and the employee would be exempt from federal income tax on the employer payment amount.
Republicans will certainly be met with stiff resistance going into the midterm elections, but as one smart strategist put it this way: If you aren’t running like you are 10 points down — start now. If you’ve never had a real campaign — get one quick. Outside groups aren’t your campaign. There’s no excuse for not being prepared. Republicans can look to Stefanik as a case study on how to win tough races by running a strong campaign that is focused on real solutions for their own constituents.
