Is a blue wave even possible? A way too early look at the midterm elections

Published July 30, 2025 8:54am ET



More than 460 days away, next year’s midterm elections are approaching, but Democrats are looking hopefully toward the past.

The president’s party has lost House seats in all but two midterm elections since 1938. The two exceptions were 1998, when Bill Clinton’s party gained five seats amid an unpopular Republican attempt to impeach him, and 2002, when George W. Bush’s party picked up eight seats in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

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