A coast-to-coast redistricting arms race ignited by President Donald Trump has plunged states into a frenzied, mid-cycle scramble that will help determine whether Republicans can maintain their narrow House majority in 2026.
As the elections approach and filing deadlines close in, the few states still weighing partisan map changes are scrambling to act, but there’s no guarantee any late-breaking redraws will give either party the edge they’re hoping for.
Rewriting district lines this late in the cycle isn’t typically how an election year begins. Still, Trump’s call for Republican-run states to overhaul their House maps to keep Democrats out of power has blown past the usual norms about when and how redistricting happens. Democrats have launched their own map-drawing pushes in response, sparking political and legal battles nationwide that will influence the 2026 playing field and help decide who ends up running Congress.
“The story of the race for the House has been dominated by mid-cycle redistricting to such a degree that it has been challenging to assess the overall state of play, with new developments popping up almost daily,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
How states handle redistricting varies widely. In some states, lawmakers can simply rewrite the lines if they have the votes. In others, any overhaul requires a constitutional change, a slower path that typically sends the decision directly to voters. Here’s a look at which states have finished their maps, which ones are tied up in court, and where new players could still emerge.
States that approved new maps
Texas ignited the mid-cycle scramble by approving a map aimed at flipping five Democratic districts, two in South Texas, one each in Dallas and Houston, and another running between Austin and San Antonio. However, a federal court put the brakes on the plan, stating that the new lines likely constitute an unconstitutional racial gerrymander and directed the state to revert to its earlier map for now.
The state is now asking the Supreme Court to intervene in a fight that has a fast-approaching deadline: Texas candidates for Congress must file for their chosen districts by Dec. 8.
Rep. Julie Johnson (D-TX) said the uncertainty has left candidates and voters in limbo. “It’s like a ping pong ball going back and forth,” she said in an interview on CNN, arguing the lower court’s ruling was clear and that mid-cycle map changes create “too much uncertainty in the process.” She added that voters expect fairness and stability, not constant shifts in district lines driven by political winds.
Republicans have defended the map in court by denying that the new lines were a racial gerrymander.
California became the first Democratic-run state to answer Trump’s call for new maps. Voters approved a congressional overhaul on Nov. 4 that scraps the lines drawn by the state’s independent commission after the 2020 census and replaces them with a plan expected to give Democrats a shot at as many as five more seats.
The map aims to effectively wipe out potential gains from the new Republican map in Texas. The party currently controls 43 of the state’s 52 districts. The Justice Department has now sided with Republicans in a lawsuit challenging the new boundaries.
Missouri followed Texas as the second Republican state to redraw its House lines at Trump’s urging. Kehoe signed the new map on Sept. 28, targeting a Democratic-held Kansas City district in hopes of flipping another seat. Republicans now hold six of eight. Opponents are pursuing lawsuits and collecting signatures for a potential referendum.
North Carolina became the third GOP-controlled state to move ahead with the kind of map changes Trump has been urging. On Oct. 22, the Republican-led legislature signed off on a congressional redraw that reconfigures a Democratic district in the eastern part of the state, potentially giving the GOP another seat. The plan does not require the governor’s sign-off. Republicans now hold 10 of 14 seats, and the new map is already the subject of a lawsuit.
Ohio’s redistricting commission, nominally bipartisan but firmly controlled by Republicans, unexpectedly approved a deal that puts two Democratic incumbents, Marcy Kaptur in the northwest and Greg Landsman in Cincinnati, in tougher districts. Rep. Emilia Sykes’ district, meanwhile, becomes more favorable to Democrats. The state was required to redraw its congressional map because the previous GOP-drawn lines were enacted without any Democratic support, triggering a redo under Ohio law.
In Utah, a state judge threw out the existing congressional map, finding it ran afoul of the state’s voter-approved anti-gerrymandering rules, and instead put in place a new plan that forms a compact, Democratic-leaning district around Salt Lake City. Her decision overrode the map passed by the GOP-controlled legislature, which would have made it far harder for Democrats to compete. Gov. Spencer Cox said he intends to bring lawmakers back for a special session next month, as Republican legislators push a constitutional amendment aimed at reaffirming their authority to revise voter-approved ballot measures.
The decision also prompted the first public break in silence from Utah’s congressional delegation. Rep. Burgess Owens (R-UT), whose district would lose significant territory under the new map, sharply criticized Judge Dianna Gibson’s ruling, accusing her of overstepping. “It is painful to watch a Utah judge abandon the restraint, balance, and humility that our system depends upon,” he wrote, arguing she had “commandeered” the mapmaking authority that should rest with elected lawmakers. Owens said her decision imposed “an outcome that was never chosen by the people,” framing it as a disruption to a system that had functioned for “more than a century.”
States moving toward revised maps
In Virginia, Democrats are pushing a multi-step effort that would shift redistricting power from the state’s bipartisan commission to the legislature starting next year. The commission deadlocked after the 2020 census, leaving a court to draw the current lines, and Democrats want a new process that gives lawmakers control. Their proposal cleared the General Assembly in late October but must pass again after the 2025 elections before going to voters for final approval. If enacted, a revised map would likely put three GOP-held districts in the crosshairs.
Analysts say the stakes are enormous. As David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report put it, “There’s a ton of upside for Democrats in the Old Dominion,” noting that even modest line changes could flip multiple GOP districts.
Louisiana has pushed its primary calendar back, with Gov. Jeff Landry signing a bill in October that shifts the date from April 18 to May 16. The move is intended to give lawmakers more time to revise the state’s congressional lines if the U.S. Supreme Court strikes down the current map. Republicans hold four of the six seats.
Maryland remains one of the simplest places for Democrats to try adding a seat to their column. With complete control of the state government, they could redraw the lines in a way that jeopardizes Rep. Andy Harris, the lone Republican in the delegation. However, a similar effort was rejected by a state court after the last census. This time around, the state Senate’s Democratic leader has signaled reluctance to reopen the maps, but Gov. Wes Moore is moving forward with a commission tasked with producing new proposals.
States weighing mid-cycle changes
The Indiana General Assembly is now poised to reopen the redistricting fight in December, a reversal that came after both Trump and Vice President JD Vance urged GOP lawmakers to push ahead with a new congressional map. The proposal on the table would likely wipe out both Democratic-held districts and deliver Republicans a 9–0 delegation.
Just days earlier, Trump’s effort appeared to be going nowhere, with the state Senate signaling it had no plans to return before the year’s end. And while senators have now agreed to reconvene, the outcome still hinges on whether enough of them ultimately support the plan. Without those votes, it won’t reach Gov. Mike Braun’s desk.
“The issue of redrawing Indiana’s congressional maps mid-cycle has received a lot of attention and is causing strife here in our state,” Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray said in a statement. “To resolve this issue, the Senate intends to reconvene as part of the regular 2026 session on Dec. 8 and make a final decision that week on any redistricting proposal sent from the House.”
In Florida, Republicans opened the door to possible mid-cycle redistricting by creating a House committee to study the issue, a move that could lead to new lines in a state where the GOP currently holds 20 of 28 congressional seats.
In Illinois, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) has been urging state lawmakers to revisit their congressional map, but there’s little indication they intend to reopen the process. The current lines already give Democrats a strong advantage, though another redraw could be used to squeeze out one additional GOP-held district.
Colorado could soon join the list of states eyeing mid-cycle map changes. Attorney General Phil Weiser, now running for governor, is urging Democrats to craft an “in case of emergency” ballot measure for 2026 that would temporarily hand redistricting power to the legislature for the 2028 cycle before restoring authority to the state’s independent commission. Gov. Jared Polis, who is finishing his final term, has shown little interest in bypassing the commission, but Weiser argues that Democratic voters are increasingly open to the idea as more Republican-led states press ahead with their own redraws.
In New York, Democratic lawmakers have introduced a constitutional amendment that would permit mid-decade redistricting. To advance, it must pass the Legislature in two consecutive sessions before appearing on the statewide ballot. Democrats currently hold 19 of the state’s 26 House seats.
Kansas Republicans quietly backed away from their attempt to trigger a special redistricting session this fall, unable to muster enough support without Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s cooperation. But the fight is only paused. Once the Legislature returns in January, GOP leaders are expected to renew their push to redraw the map, a move that would almost certainly center on making Rep. Sharice Davids’s Kansas City–area seat harder for Democrats to hold.
Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen has signaled he’s “open” to revisiting the state’s congressional map, but no formal push has materialized. Any midcycle redraw wouldn’t add a new GOP seat, but it could fortify the Omaha-area 2nd District, a swing seat Kamala Harris carried in 2024 and currently held by retiring Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE).
INDIANA LEGISLATURE TO RETURN FOR REDISTRICTING AFTER STATE SENATE CHANGES COURSE
Democrats are only three seats away from reclaiming the House. While Trump is banking on GOP-led redraws to counter the usual midterm drag, the overall battlefield still hasn’t shifted decisively in his favor. “Democrats do remain favored to win the House next year,” Kondik said, even after months of mid-cycle changes and with several major states still weighing new maps.
He noted that only an unusually early Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act could fundamentally alter the landscape, but its timing is unpredictable and likely too late to matter for the 2026 elections. With potential redraws still looming in places such as Florida, Virginia, Indiana, Kansas, Maryland, and Illinois, control of the House will ultimately hinge on just a handful of seats.
