Collapsing House? Democratic majority threatened by Republican midterm momentum

Midterm election voters are placing more emphasis on inflation and high gas prices, which Republicans bring up constantly on the campaign trail, rather than issues Democrats want to discuss, such as abortion rights and threats to American democracy by Republican election deniers.

MIDTERMS 2022 UPDATES: NEW POLL SHOWS HERSCHEL WALKER JUST 1 POINT DOWN, RYAN AND VANCE TIED

A bit over two weeks out from the Nov. 8 midterm election, that leaves Republicans in a strong, though by no means certain, position to win at least the six seats they need in the 435-member House to claim a majority. And while many of the toss-up races mentioned early in summer 2022 could still go either way, a bunch have moved decidedly in a GOP direction (while a handful has shifted toward House Democrats).

Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District

Democratic Rep. Tom O’Halleran for much of the 2022 cycle has seemed like a dead man walking politically. O’Halleran is running in a new northeastern Arizona district that in 2020 would have voted for former President Donald Trump over President Joe Biden 53.2% to 45.3%. Behind the scenes, O’Halleran complained the House Democratic campaign apparatus wasn’t supporting his reelection bid against retired Navy SEAL Eli Crane. But now, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is spending nearly $700,000 in ads attacking Crane, and O’Halleran’s internal polling shows him remaining competitive.

California’s 22nd, 27th, and 45th Congressional Districts

Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas is trying to run against party type in his bid to defeat Republican Rep. David Valadao in the 22nd Congressional District, talking up his support for the oil and gas industry. Valadao has shown political resilience in House bids over the past decade but is still running in a southern Central Valley and Eastern Bakersfield district that would have backed Biden over Trump 55.3% to 42.3%. The race remains effectively a tossup.

In the 27th Congressional District, covering Santa Clarita, Lancaster, and Palmdale in northern Los Angeles County, former Assemblywoman Christy Smith remains in a pitched battle against GOP Rep. Mike Garcia. The race is a microcosm of the national political environment, with Garcia stressing economic issues and Smith talking up abortion rights, a major issue for Democrats across the country after the Supreme Court’s June 24 Dobbs decision effectively making it a state matter rather than a national right. The district does have a decided Democratic tilt, as two years ago it would have backed Biden over Trump 55.1% to 42.7%.
US Election 2020 House California Special ElectionThe 45th Congressional District race has taken an ugly turn, with charges of anti-Asian bias flying back and forth between the campaigns of Republican Rep. Michelle Steel and Democratic rival Jay Chen. Over the summer, Steel, who emigrated from South Korea, accused Chen of mocking her accent when he said, “You kind of need an interpreter to figure out exactly what she’s saying.” Chen said he was referring to a written transcript of her town hall and her convoluted policy positions.

Steel a few weeks later sent a mailer to Vietnamese American voters in Orange County portraying Chen, the son of Taiwanese immigrants, as a communist sympathizer — because a decade ago, on the Hacienda La Puente school board, Chen voted to adopt a free Chinese-language program offered by the Chinese government.

The back-and-forth barbs are particularly sensitive in a district, straddling Orange and Los Angeles counties, that has a plurality of residents who are Asian Americans. In the 2020 presidential race, Biden would have beaten Trump 52.1% to 46%.

Colorado’s 8th Congressional District

The national political atmosphere, which now seems to favor Republicans, will likely have a big influence on this race for the new northern Denver suburbs and Greeley area seat. The Democratic nominee is state Rep. Yadira Caraveo, a practicing pediatrician and daughter of Mexican immigrants. The Republican nominee is state Rep. Barbara Kirkmeyer, who was previously a Weld County commissioner.

In 2020, Biden would have taken the district over Trump by 50.8% to 46.3%. But an internal poll from Caraveo’s campaign has her lagging behind Kirkmeyer by 46% to 44%. Another 12% were undecided in the Oct. 11-16 telephone survey of 600 likely voters in the district, by national Democratic firm Global Strategy Group.

Georgia’s 2nd Congressional District

In a state with big-name races like the blistering contest between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican nominee Herschel Walker, a Georgia football hero, this is the state’s only competitive House seat. Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop, first elected to the House in 1992, is running for reelection for this southwestern Georgia district against Chris West, an attorney and officer in Georgia’s Air National Guard.
Herschel Walker and Raphael WarnockVoters in the 2nd Congressional District in 2020 would have voted for Biden over Trump 54.7% to 44.4%. Yet an Oct. 17 Insider Advantage poll showed Bishop leading West only narrowly, 47% to 44%.

Illinois’s 17th Congressional District

Democratic nominee Eric Sorensen, a former television meteorologist, would seem to have an advantage in this new, north-central Illinois district running from Rockford to Quad Cities and Bloomington. After all, in 2020, its voters favored Biden over Trump 52.7% to 44.9%. But in an increasingly tough political environment for Democrats, the Republican nominee, attorney and Army Reserve officer Esther Joy King, stands at least an even-money chance of nabbing the seat.

Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District

This is a premiere midterm House contest, with Republican state Sen. Zach Nunn trying to unseat Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne. The Des Moines and southwestern Iowa district would have supported Trump over Biden 49.3% to 48.9%. With Republicans on offense nationally against the Biden administration agenda, Nunn has to be considered the favorite.
BidenKansas’s 3rd Congressional District

Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids is vying for reelection against former state GOP chairwoman Amanda Adkins. Two years ago, Davids beat Adkins 54%-44%, with Biden winning by an identical margin over Trump in the suburban Kansas City seat. The district’s new version makes it more politically competitive than previously — in 2020, Biden would have won by a narrower 51%-47% margin. The race could go either way on Election Day.

Maine’s 2nd Congressional District

Democratic Rep. Jared Golden is leading Republican nominee Bruce Poliquin, who held the sprawling northern Maine seat from 2015-19. Golden is up 47%-39% against former Rep. Poliquin, per a Pan Atlantic Research poll of 400 likely voters, conducted Oct. 7-15. Republicans will point to the survey’s small sample size in dismissing the finding, but the race does seem to be trending Golden’s way. Still, this is a split-ticket district. Golden, in 2020, won another House term as the district backed Trump over Biden 51.6% to 45.5%.

Michigan’s 3rd, 7th, and 8th Congressional Districts

Democratic meddling in the 3rd Congressional District Republican primary seems to be paying off. Ahead of the Aug. 2 GOP contest in which freshman Rep. Peter Meijer sought to keep his seat, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee boosted John Gibbs with a $435,000 ad buy. Meijer was among 10 Republicans who in 2021 voted to impeach Trump. Democrats saw Gibbs as far less appealing to an independent-minded, newly drawn House district in western Michigan, a traditionally conservative territory that is now much more politically mixed.
Election 2022 House MichiganThe Democratic nominee, attorney Hillary Scholten, has the upper hand in this race. The district in 2020 would have supported Biden with 53.3% of the vote to 44.8% for Trump.

In the Lansing and northwestern Detroit exurbs 7th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin has $3.68 million more on hand than her GOP challenger, state Sen. Tom Barrett. Still, that hardly guarantees a win in one of the nation’s closely balanced House districts. In 2020, Biden would have narrowly beaten Trump there 49.4% to 48.9%. FiveThirtyEight gives Slotkin a 72% chance of winning, but a lot can change by Nov. 8.
Elissa SlotkinIn the neighboring Flint and Tri-cities 8th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee is trying to stave off a challenge from Republican nominee Paul Junge, a former local newscaster and Trump administration official. Biden in 2020 carried the district by a slim 50.3% to 48.2%. FiveThirtyEight gives Kildee a 78% chance of winning, but this race isn’t over.

New Hampshire’s 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts

The eastern New Hampshire 1st Congressional District is the quintessential swing seat. From the 1974 to 2022 elections, Republican candidates won the seat 13 times, while Democrats were victorious in 12. At its most competitive point, the district switched parties in four straight elections from 2010 to 2016.

Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas on Nov. 8 faces GOP nominee Karoline Leavitt, a former aide to House Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik (NY). Pappas was first elected to the House in 2018, and under the slightly-tweaked district lines, voters there would have backed Biden over Trump 52.2% to 46.2%.
Election 2022 What to WatchLeavitt, 25, is a vocal election denier.

“I believe President Trump won the election, but I recognize that President Biden was certified, which is why I’m running for Congress — to fight against his agenda,” Leavitt said upon launching her congressional campaign in June 2021. Leavitt has maintained that stance throughout the 2022 campaign when pressed by reporters.

Polls have consistently shown Pappas, 42, with a single-digit lead over Leavitt, who, if she wins, would be the youngest female House member ever. Pappas also has $1.61 million more on hand than Leavitt.

Next door in the western and northern New Hampshire 2nd Congressional District, Rep. Annie Kuster (D) is likely to defeat Republican nominee Robert Burns, a former Hillsborough County treasurer. Kuster’s task got easier when Burns won the GOP nomination over relatively centrist rivals. Burns believes abortion should be against the law, a stance that doesn’t play well in New Hampshire, a state with a deep libertarian strain even when backing Democrats. The district would have gone for Biden over Trump 53.6% to 44.7%. A series of polls over the past six weeks show Kuster up by double digits.

New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District

Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski’s campaign has $1.63 million more on hand than his Republican opponent, former state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. Still, Malinowski is widely considered the underdog in this race. Though the southwestern New York City suburbs and exurbs district backed Biden over Trump 51.1% to 47.3%, Kean seems likely to benefit from the strong Republican tilt of this election year. He also has high name recognition as a son of a former governor, even if that’s been of limited help in his three, previously losing congressional bids. FiveThirtyEight gives Kean a 71% chance of beating Malinowski.
Tom Malinowski
New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District

The Democratic nominee in this redrawn southern New Mexico and western Albuquerque seat, former Las Cruces City Council Gabe Vasquez, is turning into a Republican opposition researcher’s dream.

Vasquez is campaigning as a centrist in a tightly contested race. But some of his deleted tweets show him attacking the oil and gas industry, rationalizing rioting in summer 2020, and comparing the Trump administration to the Ku Klux Klan.

Not surprisingly, Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell is aggressively reminding voters about this. Herrell won the seat in 2020 in a district that gave a majority of its vote to Trump. But the new version means voters there would have given Biden 51.9% over its 2020 vote to 46.1% for Trump. After the Vasquez Twitter revelations, she’s got to be considered a favorite heading into Election Day.

New York’s 18th and 19th Congressional Districts

Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY), who won an August special election, is seeking a full two-year House term in the Upper Hudson Valley 18th Congressional District. Ryan in that race emphasized his support for abortion rights, but it’s unclear if that issue will match frequent talk about inflation and high gas prices by his Republican opponent, Assemblyman Colin Schmitt. Ryan at this point appears to have the upper hand, with FiveThirtyEight giving him a 64% chance of winning.
Election 2022 House NY District 19It’s also an open seat fight in the southwestern upstate New York 19th Congressional District. The Democratic nominee is an attorney and former congressional aide, Josh Riley. He’s running against Republican Marc Molinaro, who lost that House special election to Ryan in the neighboring district. Molinaro is a familiar name on the ballot, as Dutchess County executive and the 2018 Republican gubernatorial nominee. This is one of the nation’s tightest House races and could go either way. In the 2020 presidential race, Biden would have beaten Trump in the district 51.3% to 46.7%.

Nevada’s 1st, 3rd, and 4th Congressional Districts

If Republicans have a strong enough election night, Democratic Reps. Steven Horsford and Susie Lee and Dina Titus all could lose. In districts in and around Las Vegas, the trio face, respectively, Republican challengers Sam Peters, April Becker, and Mark Robertson. Biden beat Trump in all three districts, but not by overwhelming margins. Titus previously lost in the 2010 Republican wave, as did Hosford four years later. Both came back to Congress by winning open seats, but the rising red tide 2022 cycle makes both of them vulnerable, along with Lee.

North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District

Former Yale University football star Bo Hines, a graduate of Wake Forest Law School, who Trump backed in the competitive Republican primary, will face Democratic state Sen. Wiley Nickel. The southern Raleigh suburbs district in 2020 narrowly backed Biden over Trump, 50.1% to 48.4%. Still, North Carolina’s overall Republican tilt, and the likelihood of a strong GOP election night, means Hines has the edge.

Ohio’s 1st, 9th, and 13th Congressional Districts

In the Cincinnati-area 1st Congressional District, Rep. Steve Chabot looks like one of the few endangered House Republicans in an otherwise strongly GOP year. The newly redrawn district would have voted for Biden over Trump 53.5% to 45%. The Democratic nominee is Cincinnati City Councilman Greg Landsman. An internal poll released by his campaign, taken Oct. 13-16, showed him leading Rep. Chabot 49% to 46%.

Democrats also are feeling good about their chances in the Toledo area and northwestern Ohio 9th Congressional District, even though Trump would have prevailed over Biden there 50.6% to 47.7%. Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, first elected in 1982, faces self-proclaimed ultra-MAGA supporter J.R. Majewski. He made news two years ago when he used paint to transform his yard into a giant “Trump 2020 banner.” Majewski touted his military record, but House Republicans largely cut him loose from financial support after it became clear he embellished his Air Force career accomplishments.
Marcy KapturThe Akron- and Canton-area 13th District is a true toss-up. It would have backed Biden over Trump 50.7% to 49.9%. But Republican nominee Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, an attorney, and Miss Ohio USA in 2014, is running a strong race for the open seat. She faces Democratic nominee Emilia Sykes, a state representative and former state House minority leader.

Texas’s 34th Congressional District

GOP Rep. Mayra Flores’s bid for a full term is being watched closely by both parties to see if heavily Latino south Texas really is going red. Flores became a Republican phenom over the summer by winning a special election for the seat along the Gulf Coast between Brownsville and Corpus Cristi, with a portion turning inland into the rural portions of the state. Now, though, Flores is running in a new House district with a bluer hue, in the Eastern Rio Grande Valley. Biden would have prevailed over Trump there 57.3% to 41.8%. Flores faces Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez on Nov. 8, in one of two lawmaker-vs.-lawmaker races.
Mayra Flores
Virginia’s 2nd and 7th Congressional Districts
Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria’s campaign has $2.59 million more on hand than her Republican opponent, state Sen. Jen Kiggans. But Luria is still in a tough reelection fight for a suburban Hampton Roads seat where voters would have gone for Biden over Trump 50.1% to 48.2%.
Capitol Riot InvestigationLuria is a member of the House Jan. 6 committee, which has subpoenaed Trump over his actions on Jan. 6, when supporters of the then-president ransacked the Capitol in a bid to overturn the 2020 election.

The district has one of the largest contingents of active-duty military personnel and pits two female Navy veterans against each other. Luria is a graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy and was a Navy officer for 20 years, operating on combat ships. Kiggins is a geriatric nurse practitioner and was previously a naval aviator for 10 years.

Washington’s 8th Congressional District

Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier’s campaign has $1.89 million more on hand than her GOP opponent, attorney Matt Larkin. But in a tough political environment, the relatively low-profile Schrier could face electoral trouble in this sprawling seat, covering eastern Seattle suburbs and part of central Washington. It backed Biden over Trump 52% to 45.3%, but the more rural parts of the district could spell trouble for the Democratic incumbent, where support for Republicans runs strong.
Election 2022 HouseLATE-EMERGING RACES

As expected, a swath of House races has emerged as competitive late in the 2022 cycle. This gives House Republicans a new batch of late-in-the-game targets, while Democrats have largely been forced to play defense.

Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District

This southern Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs district is becoming a concern for House Democrats. A pair of recent polls showed Democratic Rep. Angie Craig leading Republican rival Tyler Kistner by a single point. Craig’s campaign does have $2.53 million more on hand than Kistner, a Marine Corps Reserve officer. Biden would have won here by 52.5% to 45.4%.

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Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District

Recent polls show an effectively tied race between Democratic Rep. Susan Wild and Republican nominee Lisa Scheller, a former Lehigh County commissioner and wealth businesswoman. That means Democrats are playing defense in this Lehigh Valley district, which went for Biden over Trump by a hair, 49.7% to 49.1%.

Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District

House Republicans are heavily invested in winning this open seat race, in part because they’re currently shut out of seats in New England. GOP nominee Allan Fung, a former Cranston mayor, has consistently led in recent polls against the Democratic nominee, state Treasurer Seth Magaziner. No Republican has won a House seat in Rhode Island since 1992, so a Fung victory would likely be part of a red wave, or at least a strong election night.

Allan Fung