Senate majority up for grabs after months of GOP holding the advantage

President Joe Biden’s understudy, as president of the Senate, has already cast 26 tiebreaking votes for Democrats since the ticket took office on Jan. 20, 2021. That’s due to the 50-50 Senate split between the parties. And with tightening Senate races, it’s possible the Senate in the 118th Congress will again be split evenly.

Senate Democrats and Republicans, of course, are both fighting hard to avoid that possibility. Both are pushing for clear majorities, and realistic election outcomes range from a 52-48 Republican edge to the exact inverse, with Democrats holding 52 seats.

WILL THE SHIFT TOWARD GOP DELIVER A SENATE MIDTERM ELECTION WIN?

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Democrats have picked up political steam in recent months. And Senate Republicans’ chances of winning a Senate majority may be slipping away weeks ahead of the November midterm elections — as the factors that may lead them to regain the House might not carry over to their prospects for the upper chamber.

“We’re getting to the point where we typically can start to see shapes and colors,” Doug Heye, a longtime GOP strategist and former RNC communications director, told the Washington Examiner in an interview. “And we’re not seeing shapes and colors yet.”

On Sept. 23, FiveThirtyEight’s Senate forecast showed Democrats favored to hold their Senate majority at 72%, compared to Republicans’ chances of winning one at 28%. Those estimates mark a significant shift from earlier this year, when the same model showed Republicans more likely to win a Senate majority as recently as July. The same model in June had Republicans as high as 60% and Democrats at 40%, marking quite a reversal of political fortunes for the GOP.

FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver wrote on the website recently, “Ever since we launched our election model in late June, it has moved entirely in one direction: toward Democrats.”

Cautioning against “media narratives about which party has ‘momentum,’” Silver argues the political landscape is still fluid.

“Pretty much every week, [Democrats have] either gained ground in our forecast or held steady,” Silver wrote. The model, he added, “does expect the political environment to get slightly better for Republicans between now and November.”

A president’s party historically loses House seats in a midterm contest, and Republicans are seeking to mirror that trend in the Senate, pointing to rising inflation and low approval ratings for Biden.

Democrats’ gains in forecasted estimates appeared to follow several factors: the Supreme Court’s June ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which reversed its previous landmark decision in Roe v. Wade; a slight dip in gas prices; and some legislative victories for Biden and congressional Democrats.

Republicans have also been plagued by issues stemming from weak or first-time candidates in Senate races, who generally tend to be less successful at the ballot box. They have also had to contend with an investigation into sensitive documents found at the Mar-a-Lago estate of former President Donald Trump, who has campaigned for his chosen candidates as he teases a third presidential bid.

In August, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) publicly downplayed expectations for the GOP winning a Senate majority, telling reporters the party is more likely to win the House than the Senate. But in closed-door remarks this month to the Chamber of Commerce, McConnell reportedly cast a more positive tone, expressing cautious optimism about the party’s prospects.

Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) was overheard in September at a restaurant on Capitol Hill with some of his Senate Democratic colleagues predicting “a 60% chance we hold the Senate and a 40% chance we hold the House,” Punchbowl News reported.

Although forecasts are shifting to favor Democrats in the final, crucial weeks of the cycle, Republicans told the Washington Examiner that running on issues such as inflation and crime prevention may still help them win a majority in the upper chamber.

Heye also argued that even long-shot candidates seen as weak could end up with vastly different outcomes.

“I remember in 2010, we had a couple of problem candidates and problem races. Christine O’Donnell, Sharron Angle, and this guy named Rand Paul,” Heye quipped about two failed Republican candidates and the now junior senator from Kentucky.

Heye also argued that debates in Pennsylvania and Georgia have the potential to change the trajectory of close, swing-state races the way they likely don’t in states like North Carolina.

“No one knows how that’s going to go,” Heye said of the Georgia debate between Republican Herschel Walker and Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and a Pennsylvania debate between Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Republican television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz.

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In Pennsylvania, a debate in an increasingly hostile race between Fetterman and Oz could cast the impact of Fetterman’s May stroke in a new light for voters or present an opportunity for missteps for Oz, who has run a gaffe-prone campaign including releasing a video mispronouncing the name of a regional grocery chain and assembling an odd assortment of products for crudites in an attempt to point to rising inflation.

In Georgia, a state that presents perhaps the best pickup opportunity for Republicans, Walker, a football legend in the state, has faced multiple scandals and missteps during his candidacy. Including a reveal that he fathered multiple children he never previously acknowledged, which could damage his impression with voters as a general election candidate. He also falsely claimed he was an FBI agent.