President Donald Trump is set to travel to Norfolk, Virginia, on Sunday, where he could weigh in on the 2025 gubernatorial race that’s in its final stretch.
Trump is expected to give a speech related to the nation’s naval capabilities in the city home to the world’s largest naval base and the North American Headquarters for NATO. However, Virginia is also home to one of the two marquee gubernatorial races this year, the other in New Jersey. These races are early bellwether tests for the political parties ahead of the midterm elections.
Trump has not yet endorsed Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R-VA) in her battle against former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, although he has danced around the idea and endorsed Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate running for governor in New Jersey.
Trump told the Washington Examiner in early August that he would consider endorsing Earle-Sears. “Yeah, I would,” Trump said at the time. “I think probably she’s got a tough race. She shouldn’t have, but the candidate she’s running against is not very good, but I think she’s got a tough race.”
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However, the president has continued to dodge the question, even as other reporters have questioned him about endorsing after early voting started in Virginia last month.
The Earle-Sears campaign did not respond to questions from the Washington Examiner about whether the lieutenant governor would appear in Norfolk with the president. But an endorsement will likely need to come soon, as the two candidates will face off on the debate stage for one time only on Oct. 9.
“Trump is still the most powerful endorsement in modern political times, and he could certainly help push out Trump voters,” said Brian Seitchik, a national GOP strategist, about the importance of the president’s backing.
Yet if an endorsement doesn’t come, there is still time for Trump to weigh in on the race.
“If he endorses her but doesn’t do it this weekend. It’s still a big plus,” said Brian Kirwin, a longtime Republican strategist in Virginia. “The way I see the electorate, his formal endorsement will only help, and here’s why: because the Democrats are already campaigning as if Trump endorsed her. So any negatives associated with that are already figured in.”
In his three presidential campaigns, Trump never won Virginia. The president’s successful efforts to slash the federal workforce, which makes up a significant portion of the Old Dominion’s economy, and the ongoing government shutdown have not helped his approval numbers in Virginia, which the Democratic candidate has seized upon.
“Donald Trump needs to answer directly to Virginians on why he is actively cutting Virginia jobs and hurting the Virginia economy,” said Spanberger in a statement on Trump’s visit to Norfolk. “The Trump Administration has taken a sledgehammer approach to governing that has hurt Virginia’s workers, businesses, and economy. And everywhere I travel across the Commonwealth, I hear from Virginians deeply worried about what Trump’s chaos means for their families and our economy.”
A recent poll from Emerson College showed 54.3% of Virginians disapproved of the job Trump is doing as president, while 42.3% approved. That same poll also showed Spanberger leading Earle-Sears by 10 points, 52% to 42%. Another poll from the Washington Post-Schar School showed Spanberger with a 12-point lead, 55% to 43%.
Although other polls have shown a tighter race. A recent A2 Insights poll showed Spanberger at 48% and Earle-Sears at 45%, the narrowest margin reported in months.
Spanberger’s campaign has largely focused on affordability and economic issues in the commonwealth while linking Earle-Sears to the Trump administration.
“Everywhere Abigail goes across the Commonwealth, she hears from Virginians concerned about what the Trump Administration’s attacks on Virginia jobs mean for their families,” said TaNisha Cameron, a Spanberger spokeswoman.
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“And even after Virginia’s unemployment rose for seven consecutive months, Winsome Earle-Sears has defended these reckless actions and put loyalty to Trump ahead of what’s best for Virginia,” Cameron added. “Abigail believes Virginians deserve a governor who will never be afraid to stand up for the Commonwealth’s workforce and economy, and as Virginia’s next governor, she will always put Virginians’ jobs and Virginia’s economy first.”
Earle-Sears has largely seized upon transgender students using bathrooms in Virginia public schools as the key theme of her campaign.
The two candidates will meet onstage at Norfolk State University on Oct. 9, and Earle-Sears’s commanding performance could boost her campaign.
“If she does really well after that first debate, then maybe that would be the time that he could do it, and that certainly wouldn’t be too late,” said David Richards, a political science professor at the University of Lynchburg, “But honestly, the chances for [Trump] to do it in a way that makes sense and looks good are slipping by. And if he doesn’t do it Sunday, if he doesn’t do it after the debate, then it’s really starting to get too late.”
