(The Center Square) – One year out, Nevada’s pocketbook-focused 2026 gubernatorial election is neck and neck between two established and popular candidates.
Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford slightly trailed Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo in a recent poll that highlighted the divided state of Nevada politics – and gave insight into where the election could be won and lost.
“Both campaigns are doing exactly what they should be doing right now,” said Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Phoenix-based Noble Predictive Insights, which conducted the survey.
“Ford, attacking Lombardo on the pocketbook issues – cost of living, housing, affordability – and then you have Lombardo talking about everything but that,” Noble told The Center Square.
The survey, conducted Oct. 7-13, asked 766 registered voters and found 40% in favor of Lombardo, 37% backing Ford, and 23% – nearly a quarter – still undecided between the two frontrunners. Noble Predictive Insights said the poll had a 3.54% margin of error.
The pollsters also found that voters slightly favored the Democratic Party over the Republican Party, but that Lombardo was able to more than make up the difference with his own popularity.
“It’s a perennial battleground state, so it’s not uncommon that you’re going to have these very competitive races,” said Noble. “You’re typically not going to win by a mile unless you’ve done some incredible things, and so I think this is kind of par for the course.”
The 2022 Nevada gubernatorial election saw then-Clark County Sheriff Lombardo edge out Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak by about 15,000 votes, in an election with over 1 million total votes.
Today, Nevadans face their share of economic challenges. Grocery store prices are among the highest in the country, according to a LendingTree study. And a Redfin report noted housing prices in the Las Vegas area have skyrocketed to an all-time high in recent years.
“Nevadans are looking for tangible solutions to everyday challenges,” Noble noted. “The candidate who connects on affordability will likely carry the momentum into 2026.”
The demographic group most likely to swing with this topic is Hispanic and Latino voters in the Silver State, Noble said. “They’re usually a lower turnout group. To get them to turn out and vote his way on the pocketbook, I think there’s a big opportunity there for Ford.”
Ford, who has so far focused his campaign on the economic woes under Lombardo, according to Noble, has an early lead with Latino voters. While Lombardo has strongholds in the suburbs, among independents, and in Clark County, Ford vastly outstripped the incumbent by 23 points among Latino voters in the poll.
Neither Ford nor Lombardo’s campaign office responded to The Center Square’s request for comment.
Nevada’s gubernatorial general election takes place Nov. 3, 2026.
The primary election will take place June 9, 2026, and will include Republican candidate Matthew Winterhawk and Democratic candidate Alexis Hill, a Washoe County commissioner.
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Democrats currently have majorities in both houses of the Legislature, but lack enough seats to override vetoes by Republican Gov. Lombardo. If Democrats keep control of the Legislature, a win by Democratic Attorney General Ford likely would make it easier for them to pass bills.
Lombardo looks to be the first Nevada governor to possibly win a reelection campaign since Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval in 2014.
