Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is making one thing clear: she’s ready to leave Washington and the House of Representatives and move on to something new.
The New York congresswoman, formerly the chairwoman of House Republican Leadership, has had quite the year. From getting her United Nations ambassadorship nomination pulled to waging public war against the leader of her conference, Stefanik has shown she’s someone who isn’t afraid to go after her political opponents, such as Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY), but doesn’t shy away from criticizing her own party, either.
Stefanik has been using her House seat, which she has held since 2015, as a de facto bully pulpit for her gubernatorial campaign, which she launched on Nov. 7.
She has used bill passages both related and unrelated to New York and Democratic wins in New York City as avenues to attack Hochul, who is up for reelection next year. Stefanik was granted a waiver to sit in on a House Oversight hearing where she could question Hochul on their state’s immigration policies during the governor’s testimony.
Attacking her Democratic opponent has been a constant but expected tactic. However, the congresswoman shocked many this year when she had public spats with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and seemed to pull away from the House after President Donald Trump yanked her nomination due to the GOP’s razor-thin margins.
Stefanik has privately blamed the speaker for her losing out on an administration position, per multiple reports, and their relationship has remained icy ever since. She skipped out on votes in the aftermath of her nomination being pulled, and she did not attend any of the GOP leadership press conferences despite Johnson creating the position of chairwoman for her — a sign she’s ready for the next chapter.
“She’s in this awkward position where she is now stuck in the House, but she lost her leadership position that she’d had, Republican conference chair, because she gave that up because she thought she was going to the administration,” Erin Covey, a House analyst for the Cook Political Report, previously told the Washington Examiner.
“She had this rise, and I think she is not someone who is going to want to sit around at a leadership position that was created at the last minute for her,” Covey added. “And so it’s at that point, she looks at, like, the next kind of step up the ladder politically, and the New York governor’s race seems like a prime opportunity.”
Last week, Stefanik fought with Johnson over a provision in the National Defense Authorization Act. The speaker pushed back on her accusations that he was getting “rolled” by Democrats and blocking her amendment to require congressional notice of FBI investigations into federal candidates, saying it was “more lies” from Johnson. She later gave an interview to the Wall Street Journal saying that if the House voted for a new speaker “tomorrow,” Johnson “wouldn’t have the votes.”
The speaker faced a similar public argument with Stefanik back in April, when she denied that Johnson talked to her about her then-speculated run for governor. The speaker called Stefanik “one of his closest friends” in April, but the relationship appears noticeably more rocky as the end of the year approaches.
“I don’t exactly know why Elise won’t just call me,” Johnson said last week. “I texted her yesterday.”
He later added wearily, “I’m not sure how to comment on what Elise is doing or what the rationale behind this is,” when asked for comment about her critiques of his leadership.
It’s rare for a member to attack their leader publicly, and even rarer for a member of leadership to take a stand against the speaker, as they tend to be in lockstep with very little daylight between them. But Stefanik has insisted that she is standing up for herself and other members of the House GOP conference who want to make their voices heard.
“The Speaker texted me [Monday] claiming he ‘knew nothing about [blocking her NDDA proposal].’ That is his preferred tactic when he gets caught torpedoing the Republican agenda,” Stefanik wrote in a post to X.
Stefanik’s strategy may pay off in general election, but she walks a fine line for GOP primary
Could this tactic of fighting the establishment, even in her own party, be an asset for Stefanik’s gubernatorial bid? Lawrence Levy, New York strategist and executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies for Hofstra University, said that right now, her arguments with the speaker of the House are very “inside baseball” and likely won’t connect with the everyday voter.
But, Levy said, it could help her win the game that both declared and possible Republican candidates need to play: winning over Trump.
“So to the extent that Stefanik thinks that attacking the speaker is going to earn her points with the president, she’s going to pursue that path,” Levy said.
Whoever is selected as the Republican gubernatorial nominee will have an uphill battle to oust Hochul. The Democrat won the 2022 gubernatorial race with 52.9% of the vote, defeating now-Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin.
But pollsters found this summer that Hochul is not in as strong a position as an incumbent would like to be, giving a strong Republican candidate a possible edge to flip the seat, though that is statistically unlikely given New York’s blue track record.
Could Stefanik be that candidate? As Levy noted, she first needs Trump’s endorsement. Though she seems to have cleared the field of any challenges from her House colleagues, such as Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY), Trump has not discouraged Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman from seeking the GOP nomination.
Blakeman told Spectrum News 1 in mid-November that he will jump into the race if he gains enough support following his reelection victory as county executive.
“I’m making my decision not based on what professional establishment politicians tell me to do,” Blakeman told the outlet. “I’m going to do it based on what I think is the best thing for the people of New York and the best thing for my party.”
A backing from Trump could be a double-edged sword for Stefanik, in particular. The president’s support would be key for rallying the Make America Great Again base and securing her the nomination in the GOP primary. But once it’s time for the general election, Stefanik will need to appeal to conservative Democrats and independents, the latter the “fastest growing bloc in New York City,” Levy said.
“Whoever wins the Republican nomination has their work cut out for them, and it starts with winning Trump and the MAGA support, unifying their own party, and then finding enough Democratic and independent voters who don’t like Hochul for whatever reason to get them over to pull a startling upset in a deep blue state,” the strategist said.
Levy pointed to Stefanik’s reaction to Trump’s White House meeting with New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani. Stefanik worked hard to tie Hochul to Mamdani, a socialist whom Republicans argue is the face of the Democratic Party’s radical agenda.
But the president’s friendly meeting with Mamdani, in which he said he looked forward to working with him, blew up Stefanik’s central message of her campaign, although she denied this in an interview with News 12.
“I stand by my statement,” she said. “He is a jihadist. This is an area where President Trump and I disagree. But what we all want to work toward is making New York more affordable and safe, and that’s where I have a very strong record and working relationship with the administration.”
Taking any stance against the president is a delicate balance. Trump has proven to turn on his most staunch allies, such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA).
“The thing with Donald Trump is he’s your friend until he’s not, and he’s your enemy until he’s not,” Republican consultant Susan Del Percio told Politico. “If you look at it through that prism, pick your timing. It’s just the way he works. He’s that transactional.”
So, much like her decision to go against Trump on Mamdani, the fighting with Johnson could also put a target on her back.
STEFANIK’S RAGE WITH JOHNSON SUBSIDES, FOR NOW
“Her response to the bro hug in the White House between Trump and Mamdani was to say, ‘I’m running my own race for governor against Kathy Hochul. I don’t take my orders from anybody.’ And then you know, to say, ‘Well, look at what I’m doing with Johnson,’” Levy said.
“It could help her with some voters who like an anti-establishment candidate, but it’s hard for Stefanik to make a case that she’s a fresh face attacking institutions or the swamp — she’s been part of it for a long time, like a lot of Republicans and Democrats,” the strategist added.
