Election returns from 2020 show waves of deep red in Oklahoma and West Virginia — both states in which President Donald Trump won every county. But look a bit deeper, and several purple shoots emerge in places where growing Democratic strength could make the states more competitive for the party down the line.
It’s an inverse picture in a long-Democratic county in blue California that backed the September 2021 effort to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom. As well as across the country, in a coastal New Jersey county that traditionally voted for Democrats but in 2021 backed the Republican gubernatorial candidate. The move toward Republicans in those places signals growing GOP strength in states Democrats have long taken for granted.
Combined, Oklahoma County, Oklahoma and Monongalia County, West Virginia on one hand, and Lake County, California and Atlantic County, New Jersey, offer a glimpse into the changing nature of American politics. Shifting demographics, with residents moving in and out due to job opportunities, costs of living, and a variety of other factors, reinforce the maxim that American politics is never static. And they’re a reminder that a bit over 10 months out from the 2022 midterm elections, political predictions based on past election results and current poll numbers only go so far.
That became apparent in Oklahoma County after the 2020 presidential race. Trump, while losing to President Joe Biden nationwide, won all 77 of Oklahoma’s counties for a statewide win of 65% to his Democratic rival’s 32%.
But the story was considerably different in Oklahoma County, which hosts the state capital, Oklahoma City. With 796,292 residents, per the 2020 census, the county has about 20% of the state’s population.
In Oklahoma County, Trump beat Biden by a narrow 49.21% to 48.08% margin. And that was a considerable shift left from the 2016 presidential race, when Trump won 51.58% in Oklahoma to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s 41.18%.
Trump in 2020 performed even better statewide in West Virginia than Oklahoma. The incumbent swept all 55 of the Mountain State’s counties in a 69% to 30% romp over Biden.
Still, the red ran shallow in Monongalia County, where Trump beat Biden 49.45% to 48.21%. That was a considerable shift toward the Democratic ticket, with Monongalia County in 2016 having backed Trump over Clinton 51% to 41%.
Monongalia is West Virginia’s third-most populous county and the fastest-growing. It’s home to West Virginia University in Morgantown. And, nestled in the state’s northwest corner, the country has become a Pittsburgh exurb for many residents who commute to work in the western Pennsylvania hub.
Monongalia County gained about 10% in population over the past decade, in stark contrast to West Virginia as a whole. West Virginia, between the censuses of 2010 and 2020, lost 3.2% of its population, by far the highest in the nation.
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So the Democratic performance in Monongolia County stands out in an otherwise nearly blood-red Republican state. It was even starker in that year’s governor’s race. Republican Gov. Jim Justice carried the county over Democratic nominee Ben Salango by a margin of fewer than 500 votes in the county while skating to victory statewide, 64% to 31%.
To be sure, neither Oklahoma nor West Virginia is going Democratic in presidential races anytime soon. But the demographic shifts in their fastest-growing counties are worth keeping an eye on.
As are the move from blue to red in deeply Democratic states.
Consider Lake County, part of California’s “Emerald Triangle,” named after the marijuana industry’s longtime presence there, along with neighboring Mendocino and Humboldt counties on the Pacific Coast. Inland and several hours northeast of San Francisco, the county of a bit over 68,000 people in the northern tier of wine country has long backed Democratic presidential candidates. In 2016 Lake County went for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump 47%-43%. Fours later, with California backing Biden over Trump statewide by a nearly 2-1 margin, Biden won Lake County 51%-45%.
Then, just 10 months later, in the California gubernatorial recall election, Lake voted against keeping the Democratic incumbent, Gavin Newsom, in office. Lake backed the Newsom recall 51% to 49%. Even as the Republican-led effort went down in flames in California overall, with Golden State voters voting to keep Newsom in office by a 62%-38% clip. Political analysts are still studying the results, but a move of many people from California’s more conservative environs to the relatively remote environs of Lake County is one possibility.
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A similar shift right within a year of the 2020 presidential race became clear across the country, in Atlantic County, New Jersey. With Biden beating Trump in the Garden State 57%-41%, Atlantic County backed the now-Democratic president 53% to the then-GOP incumbent’s 46%.
Yet only a year later, in New Jersey’s much closer-than-expected gubernatorial race, Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy slid from a 13% Atlantic County win in 2017 to an 11.4% deficit against Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli. While Murphy won reelection 51% to 48%, Atlantic was among three counties Murphy lost after finishing on top in 2017 — along with Cumberland and Gloucester in the southern part of the state.
