Riding the coattails of a favorable congressional map and negative Democratic headwinds on crime and the economy, Republicans scored surprise wins in New York in 2022 to wrestle back control of the House. In this four-part series, the Washington Examiner will take a look at how focused the GOP will be on the Empire State in 2024 and if it can stop the Democratic Party from regaining the upper hand in its traditional stronghold. Part 1 of this series will examine the uphill battle Republicans face in controlling the House and why New York will be a vital part of any victory.
New Yorkers are set to elect their newest representative on Tuesday, giving Democrats an opportunity to close in on Republicans’ slim majority in the House and give them a leg up as they seek to win control of the lower chamber in November.
The Empire State was a beacon of hope for Republicans during the 2022 midterm elections after the party managed to flip four seats in their favor, helping to seize control of the House. However, that victory appears to be short-lived as Republicans head into 2024, with one of those very seats at risk before voters head to the ballot box in November.
Voters in the 3rd Congressional District of New York will vote on who should replace former Republican Rep. George Santos, who was ousted from the House late last year due to allegations of unlawful misconduct. The race has garnered national attention as House Democrats view it as a prime pickup opportunity to claw back their majority in the lower chamber.
The race is deemed a toss-up against former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, who held the seat before launching an unsuccessful bid for governor in 2022, and Mazi Pilip, who is seen as a rising star in the Republican Party after she was elected to the Nassau County legislature in 2021.
If Democrats manage to win, that would pose a major math problem for Republicans as they push to advance their agenda for the remainder of this Congress — giving them minimal room for error.
As of Friday, the House has 431 members split between 219 Republicans and 212 Democrats. That means the magic number to pass legislation through a simple majority is 216, giving Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) a three-vote majority — but only if all members are present.
That presents a challenge to GOP leadership because any absence on its side of the aisle could tip the scales in Democrats’ favor. That math problem was on full display last week when Republicans failed to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.
Lawmakers voted by a narrow margin of 214-216 to reject the articles of impeachment after four Republicans joined all Democrats in opposing the measure. The vote stood at a stalemate for several minutes when only three Republicans opposed the resolution, which brought the total vote count to 215-215.
The unusual tally was due in part to Democrats managing full attendance with the reemergence of Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN), who has been absent since December because of his presidential campaign, and Rep. Al Green (D-TX), who traveled from the hospital to be present for the vote. Republicans, however, had one absence: Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), who has been gone due to medical reasons.
It’s not clear when Scalise is expected to return. But if Democrats manage to win Santos’s old seat and the majority leader remains absent from the chamber for a while longer, that means Republicans can only afford two defections on any given vote — any more than that and a proposal will fail.
In good news for Republicans, this complicated equation won’t last for long. There are three other vacant seats that will be filled in the coming weeks due to other retirements, including those once held by former Reps. Kevin McCarthy, Bill Johnson, and Brian Higgins. As those seats, which aren’t expected to be competitive, are filled, it will provide Republicans a bit more breathing room.
But their troubles in New York won’t be over after Tuesday’s election. The seats that helped Republicans win the House in 2022 could be the very districts that help Democrats seize control in November.
The top court in New York ruled in December that the state’s congressional map must be redrawn ahead of the next election, vacating the boundaries put into place for the 2022 midterm elections. Democrats will now get a chance to undo their losses by implementing a map that could secure a majority of the state’s seats.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
Among the Republican incumbents who could be targeted in this sweep are Reps. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY), Mike Lawler (R-NY), and Marc Molinaro (R-NY), each of whom flipped their seats red during the midterm elections with the help of the redrawn map.
Although the map is not finalized, it could lead to Democrats picking up an extra three seats to help win back the majority next year.
