The GOP’s campaign arm is signaling confidence ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, claiming new internal polling shows them in position to flip five Democrat-held seats in November.
The National Republican Congressional Committee’s polling, its first released this cycle, shows Republicans are competitive in five Democratic-held districts that President Donald Trump won in 2024.
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“House Democrats are staring down a political buzzsaw in districts that already rejected their party at the top of the ticket last cycle,” NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson said in a statement. “These polls underscore the NRCC’s strategy to go on offense, expand the battlefield and flip seats, putting Democrats on the back foot and making their climb out of the minority even steeper.”
The polling shows the Republican candidate for Maine’s 2nd District, Paul LePage, leading Democratic candidates state Sen. Joe Baldacci and state Auditor Matt Dunlap, who are locked in a hotly contested primary. The NRCC’s polling shows LePage holding 50% support compared to 40% for the Democratic candidates. LePage is a former two-term governor of Maine.
In Washington’s 3rd District, Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Braun leads incumbent Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) by 7%. Braun leads the incumbent 41% to 34%, according to the poll.
In the other three districts, however, the polls showed Republican candidates within the margin of error. The polls, conducted from April 25 to 29, had margins of error ranging from plus or minus 3.12% to 3.5%.
In Texas’s 34th District, Republican Eric Flores holds a one-point advantage over incumbent Rep. Vincente Gonzales (D-TX), with the candidates at 41% and 40% support, respectively.
Republican Laurie Buckhout, an Army veteran running for North Carolina’s 1st District, is tied 41% to 41% against incumbent Rep. Don Davis (D-NC). The remaining district, New Mexico’s 2nd District, has Republican Greg Cunningham, a former Albuquerque police officer, two points behind incumbent Gabe Vasquez (D-NM).
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Spokesperson Viet Shelton dismissed the polling in a statement to the Washington Examiner.
“No matter how Republicans try to manipulate push polling on the House battlefield, they can’t stop the inevitable — we are taking back the House in November,” Shelton said.
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The NRCC argues its polling shows Republicans are on the offensive heading into the midterm elections, despite history showing incumbent parties at a disadvantage politically. Internal polling is also often more favorable to party candidates.
The polling release showing the GOP candidates as competitive comes as Republicans across the nation are considering plans to move forward with redrawing their congressional districts following the landmark ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, opening the door for multiple southern red states to redraw their maps amid the redistricting war that began last year.
