Nearly 100 days into his term, President Joe Biden is more popular than former President Donald Trump. Beyond that, it’s up for debate.
In major national polls taken this month, Biden’s job approval rating has ranged from a low of 48%, according to Quinnipiac, which was relatively favorable to Democrats in last year’s election cycle, to a high of 61%.
Similarly, the spread has ranged from net approval of plus 22 points in a Hill survey that was Biden’s April high point to a low of plus 2 points in a more recent Rasmussen poll, which typically leans right. The RealClearPolitics polling average has Biden at 53.1% approve and 41.8% disapprove.
Being more popular than Trump was sufficient for Biden to win the presidential election. But Democrats once again underperformed their public poll numbers, barely holding on to the House, despite predictions they would increase their majority, and fighting Republicans to a 50-50 draw in the Senate, where Vice President Kamala Harris can break ties.
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The polling difficulties plagued Biden too, four years after Trump stunned Hillary Clinton in a poll-defying upset. “Thanks to the quirks of the Electoral College, the difference between a new administration and four more years of Donald Trump was merely 43,000 votes cast across Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona,” a group of top Democratic pollsters wrote in an election postmortem. “Every one of us thought Democrats would have a better Election Day than they did.”
That’s why many political number crunchers suggest ignoring the scattershot polls and focus on the averages. “The polls I trust have actually been fairly consistent — ABC/WaPo, NBC, Fox,” said Republican pollster Neil Newhouse. “Americans are expressing cautious approval of the job the president is doing, with his job approval significantly higher at 100 days than President Trump's, but significantly lower than President Obama's at the same point in time. But, under the surface, these figures also reinforce how deeply divided the country remains. Biden's job approval among GOP'ers (9%) is nearly identical to Trump's 2017 job approval among Dems (7%).”
Fox News has Biden’s job approval rating at 54%, the Washington Post/ABC News poll 52%. The most recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll pegs Biden’s approval at 51%. Biden received 51.3% of the popular vote last year.
By this point in their terms, the Washington Post’s polls found most postwar presidents more popular than Biden. The exceptions were Trump and Gerald Ford. Trump was a one-term president, and Ford never won a national election, having been appointed vice president after Spiro Agnew’s resignation and then becoming president after Richard Nixon resigned following Watergate.
The other incumbent presidents who were defeated for reelection boasted higher job approval ratings at the 100-day mark: George H.W. Bush at 71% and Jimmy Carter at 63%. Trump and Ford remain the only presidents to fail to break the 50% threshold during this time period.
“The low approval ratings for the president are a direct result of his lack of effort, his policies, and his public invisibility,” said Republican strategist Bradley Blakeman. “Most administrations would highly script the first 100 days with themes, messaging, and events. There has been none of that. It is as if the president isn’t even there.”
Nevertheless, the White House has dismissed the idea that Biden’s poll numbers are soft, especially on the issues Democrats believe are key to their continued electoral success.
“Well, first, I would say there were a bunch of polls over the weekend,” press secretary Jen Psaki said at Monday’s daily briefing before going on to highlight some numbers concerning Biden’s management of the pandemic. “According to the NBC poll, it was 69%; CBS, 65%; ABC, 64% approval. Also, I will — I will also note, per our earlier discussion, that, according to the ABC poll, 58% of the public approved of raising corporate tax rates.”
“But the bottom line is the president — these polls show what we have long known: that the president came into office at one of the most divisive moments in modern American history,” Psaki continued. “And the president's focus is on fulfilling his promise to bring the country together, so, in large part, on delivering on the things the American people were — elected him to do, which, there, we have seen broad approval for: getting the pandemic under control, turning our economy around, especially for working families and the middle class.”
On issues where independents support Biden, such as the pandemic, his numbers are strong. Where they don’t, as is the case on guns and immigration, he is well below 50%.
“Further, President Biden's approval is anchored by his support from women and from independents,” Newhouse said. “While women approve of the job he's doing by 61% to 32%, men disapprove by 47% to 44%. That's a 32-point gender gap!”
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Biden is in the midst of trying to win congressional approval of multiple large spending packages, including an infrastructure bill with a price tag in excess of $2 trillion, before Democrats shift their focus to trying to defend their narrow majorities in next year’s midterm elections. The president is expected to sell these proposals in his first address to a joint session of Congress Wednesday night.
“Clearly, President Trump is a steady presence in the rearview mirror of Americans — when Biden approvers were asked why they approve of the job he's doing, the most common response is that ‘he’s not Donald Trump,’” Newhouse said.
