Republican voters hold former President Donald Trump in high esteem and tend to agree with his dubious claims about the 2020 election, but those sentiments are not translating into overwhelming support for a third White House bid.
Republican pollsters studying post-election surveys are settling on two seemingly contradictory conclusions they say are compatible. Republican voters prefer Trump’s brand of conservative populism, what pollsters are calling “Trumpism,” over the “traditional Republicanism” of the preceding era; the former president’s agenda benefited their bottom line. But a growing segment of these same voters, frustrated by the perpetual chaos of the Trump presidency, would prefer a conventional, disciplined politician represent the party in 2024.
“His working-class populism has redefined the identity and agenda of the party,” said Republican pollster Brock McCleary, who advised Trump’s reelection campaign. “There is merely a segment of Republicans who like Trump but are open to discussion about who can best defend and advance Trump populism in the years to come.”
Trump is dropping hints he plans to seek a rematch with President Joe Biden in 2024 while stoking division among prominent Republicans in Washington with conspiracies that the November election was stolen. Republican base voters, particularly fond of Trump, are enthusiastic about the former and wholeheartedly accept the latter as fact. But among the broader Republican electorate, more nuanced opinions of Trump are emerging.
They approve of Trump’s leadership as president; want the former president to continue functioning as an influential party leader; believe the 2020 election was mired by too many serious irregularities; back Trump’s domestic and foreign policy agenda; and appreciate his administration’s accomplishments. Yet, they oppose another Trump campaign and believe the party would stand a better chance in 2024 with fresh blood at the top of the ticket.
“Both are true,” veteran Republican pollster Frank Luntz said, regarding the mindset of this significant cohort of GOP voters.
The first signs of a desire for change emerged at this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference. Trump delivered the first public speech of his post-presidency to an adoring CPAC crowd and, in a straw poll of the Republican activists in attendance, blew away the competition in a hypothetical matchup of 2024 presidential primary contenders, although he won with just 55%. In other words, 45% chose an alternative.
Additional CPAC straw poll data provided more evidence that Trump’s high approval ratings among Republican voters, post-presidency, do not equal support for a third White House bid. Even among this hardcore, pro-Trump group, only 68% said they wanted him to run for president again, even as 95% said they want the 2024 GOP nominee to perpetuate his governing agenda.
Meanwhile, Tony Fabrizio, another Republican pollster who in the past has advised Trump, found in polling this year that the party was divided into five factions, with varying degrees of support for the former president.
In Fabrizio’s survey, 28% of Republicans would “definitely” support Trump for president in 2024, as would another 10% of strong Trump backers, while 27% would be “inclined” that way. But another 35% opposed a Trump 2024 bid, including 20% who like the former president but want new leadership and 15% who consider themselves Never Trump. In other words, with Trump, how his support translates within the GOP can be complicated.
“Trumpism is alive and well,” a Republican pollster who has worked for pro-Trump groups said. “But don’t confuse support for Trumpism for support for a Trump candidacy.”
