Former President Donald Trump’s return to campaign-style rallies poses a dilemma for Republicans who would like to move on from the 2020 presidential election while retaining his base of working-class support.
Like an aging rock star, Trump’s set list at a rally in Ohio over the weekend contained all the greatest hits: his recitation of “The Snake,” complaints about a porous border, protests about the election, and criticism of Republicans who sided with his second impeachment following the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.
“We won the election twice, and it’s possible we’ll have to win it a third time. It’s possible,” Trump said, teasing a 2024 presidential campaign.
As is often the case when classic rockers tour, the show received mixed reviews. Some adoring fans want to hear the familiar hits, while others would prefer deep cuts and new material.
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One popular pro-Trump account on Twitter hailed the former president’s “powerful speech.” Human Events editor Will Chamberlain tweeted, “Gotta be real, Trump rallies feel played out now.”
“I think, basically, the takeaway is the president is in no hurry to endorse in this primary, and knowing how important Ohio is nationally, he’s going to draw out and milk the process for all the earned media coverage he can get out of it,” said Republican strategist Nicholas Everhart.
Beyond this divide in Trump’s fan base, there are broader questions for Republicans who would like to keep the focus on next year’s midterm elections and challenging President Joe Biden’s agenda. While some of Trump’s talk about the border, Big Tech, and critical race theory is on-message for the party as a whole, most Republican elected officials and campaign consultants do not want to be relitigating last year’s presidential contest.
Trump is also using some of these freewheeling events specifically to rail against the 10 House Republicans and seven GOP senators who supported his impeachment earlier this year. In Ohio, he has vowed to help defeat Rep. Anthony Gonzalez and plugged former aide Max Miller’s primary challenge on Saturday. Some have billed it Trump’s “revenge tour.”
Trump continued on Monday to take shots at leading Republicans over their failure to amplify his claims about the 2020 election. “Had Mitch McConnell fought for the Presidency like he should have, there would right now be Presidential Vetoes on all of the phased Legislation that he has proven to be incapable of stopping,” he said in a statement. He appeared to be reacting to reports that McConnell urged then-Attorney General William Barr to dispute Trump’s repeated assertions about election fraud publicly.
Democrats are defending narrow majorities in both houses of Congress, and Republicans in Washington would prefer to avoid divisive primaries targeting incumbents. Trump is predicting GOP victory either way. “We will take back the House, we will take back the Senate, and we will take back America, and we will do it soon,” he said.
Moreover, Trump’s continued presence in the spotlight threatens to divert attention from other Republicans emerging as possible contenders for the 2024 nomination. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis recently edged out Trump in the Western Conservative Summit’s straw poll and is planning his own tour of speeches. Trump’s next rally will be in Florida.
“Any former president will energize a base and draw a crowd,” said Republican strategist Jon Gilmore. “Like him or not, President Trump is the only national voice being heard right now. The Republican Party needs to be looking for the next leader that will challenge Biden in 2024.”
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Trump was more competitive in last year’s elections than most public polls predicted, especially in the battleground states. Republicans gained seats in the House and were able to hang on to 50 Senate seats. But a suburban shift against Trump cost him Rust Belt states that had proved decisive in 2016, as well as Georgia and Arizona. Republicans went on to lose both Senate seats in the former state during a pair of Jan. 5 runoff elections.
Republican operatives would like to avoid the pitfalls associated with Trump while continuing to channel his populist energy, turning out conservatives and blue-collar voters in the midterm elections and 2024.
