Ed Gillespie continues to close the gap on Mark Warner in the Virginia Senate race, causing Real Clear Politics to move the race from “Likely Dem” to “Leans Dem.” Virginia is currently the only Senate race in that category, which suggests it’s the GOP’s best chance to stage a substantial upset on election night.
Christopher Newport University polling indicates the race’s trajectory. About two months ago, that polling found Gillespie trailing Warner by 22 points. About a month ago, it found Gillespie trailing by 12 points. Friday, it found him within 7 points. Over that span, Warner hasn’t merely failed to move undecided voters into his camp but has actually lost support. Indeed, across all polling, Warner has struggled to hit 50 percent support and is at 48.5 percent in the current RCP average, which suggests he still needs to move some undecided voters his way.
On Obamacare, the contrast between the two candidates is perhaps starker than in any other Senate race. Warner provided one of the 60 crucial Senate votes for Obamacare and continues to defend his vote. Gillespie is the only Senate candidate in the country who has advanced a detailed alternative to Obamacare.
On the heels of the Richmond Times-Dispatch’s endorsement of Gillespie last weekend — it said he “will help formulate, stimulate and legislate effective solutions,” while Harry Reid “has turned the Senate into a legislative catacomb” — the Fauquier Times (from Fauquier County in the Washington, D.C. metro area) endorsed Gillespie this week, writing,
“Sen. Warner has been at pains to distance himself from his president and party. Perhaps one of the greatest political myths of our time is that the senator is a ‘moderate’ when his unbroken record of votes supporting the president’s agenda speak to a political philosophy far to the left of most Virginians.”
Especially in light of Warner’s liberal voting record, it makes sense that Virginia is in play. Based on the past three presidential elections, the Old Dominion is to the right of Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire — three states in which Republican senatorial candidates are either within striking distance or in the lead. Following Eric Cantor’s defeat at the hands of Dave Brat, could Virginia be poised to provide a second great shock to the political landscape in 2014?
