Florida Republican Gov. Rick Scott announced on Monday that he would challenge incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson in the state’s upcoming Senate race. Scott’s official entry into the race isn’t a surprise (many political insiders suspected he would run), but it is a win for the GOP. If Nelson were running against a replacement-level Republican the race likely wouldn’t be competitive, but Scott might be able to outperform a more typical GOP candidate and either keep this race close or potentially win. I’ll explain why.
Most people who have read anything about the midterm elections know that fundamental factors favor the Democrats. President Trump’s approval ratings are historically low, and midterms typically serve as referendums on the president and his party. That means that if Trump remains unpopular, voters will punish down-ballot Republicans in November.
In a swing state like Florida, those factors would normally give Nelson a big advantage. I used a simple model to estimate how well Nelson would perform against a generic Republican challenger using presidential approval, the state’s partisan lean, incumbency and candidate quality. And if Trump’s approval rating was at 41.5 percent (its current level) on Election Day, Nelson would almost certainly win re-election against a generic Republican. The back-of-the-envelope math backs this up. Democrats have a strong lead in House generic ballot polls and Florida only leans slightly right, so an incumbent Democratic senator in Florida should be reasonably safe this year.
But Scott’s entry into this race makes it more competitive. According to Morning Consult’s national polling, Scott has a 58 percent approval rating among registered voters in Florida. Not every poll is so high on Scott—Gravis has his approval rating at 43 percent, and Quinnipiac put him at 49 percent—but all three of these polls gave him a higher approval rating than disapproval rating.
Scott got high marks for his handling of Hurricane Irma, and he’s tried to walk a tightrope in dealing with Trump. He’s disagreed with the president on immigration and gun control, but simultaneously maintained a good relationship with the president and fundraised for him. He hasn’t always been this popular —Scott’s approval rating was nine points lower in mid-2016 according to Morning Consult, and he barely won the governorship in 2010 and 2014 despite national GOP waves in both years. But for now it looks like his balancing act (being friendly enough with Trump not to anger the base but also distant enough from him to win over some voters who dislike the president) is benefiting him.
All of these factors—Scott’s polling, the state’s politics, the overall environment—add up to Scott having a much better chance at taking this seat than your average Republican.
But Republicans shouldn’t get too excited yet. RealClearPolitics has collected 10 polls of this race, and Nelson leads in eight of them (one of them shows a tie and the other has Scott leading by two points). The RCP average currently has Nelson ahead by 3.8 points. That’s not safe this far out from November, but it’s not necessarily nothing. Maybe more importantly, Scott’s popularity isn’t immutable and the fundamentals favor Nelson.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Cook Political Report and RealClearPolitics rate this race as a toss-up. Inside Elections has it at “Tilts D.” These assessments are all reasonable, but I’m closest to Inside Elections on this one. Nelson is far from the strongest incumbent running this year (and he’s caught some lucky breaks with his past opponents), and Scott is making this race much more competitive than a more typical Republican candidate would. But it’s difficult to look at the fundamentals this year and not give Nelson at least some sort of edge.
